000 AGXX40 KNHC 150831 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 331 AM EST Mon Jan 15 2018 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... Winds and seas across the area continue to slowly diminish as high pres ridging extends SW over the Gulf. An area of strong N-NE winds lingers over the far SE Gulf and Straits of Florida, where seas are 8 to 9 ft. The high pres will move eastward through late Mon night as it weakens. Fresh to locally strong N winds will become moderate to fresh NE to E winds over the Gulf today through Tue night. A strong cold front will enter the NW Gulf Tue afternoon, reach from the Florida panhandle to near 26N91W and to just N of Tampico Tue evening and move to just SE of the area early on Wed. Model guidance and ensemble forecasts have trended upward with respect to chances for gales near tampico and Veracruz Tue night and Wed. Have accordingly added gales and seas of 10 to 13 ft during this time frame. High pres building in behind the front will will increase the gradient across the SE Gulf allowing for the present area of strong N-NE winds to increase in coverage through early on Thu with seas of 8-10 ft. These winds and seas will funnel S through the Yucatan Channel as well and diminish from Thu afternoon into Fri. The high pres behind this front will shift eastward through Fri and weaken. a weak surface trough and possible embedded low pres over the western gulf will lift northward near the southern and central Texas coast Thu night through Fri night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... A stationary front currently extending from eastern Cuba near 21N78W to 15N81W to 09N81W will begin to weaken this afternoon and continue weakening through Mon night. The gale force winds within 60 nm of the coast of Nicaragua have persisted as winds continue to be funneled between the front and the higher terrain of Nicaragua. GFS 30 meter wind fields appear to have the best handle on this setup. Model guidance calls for winds to rapidly decrease later this morning and fall below gale force. Strong to near gale force winds are noted elsewhere W of the front. Expect model guidance still suggests winds will diminish to strong speeds by Tue morning as the front continues to weaken, then to moderate to fresh speeds through Fri. Otherwise, strong winds will pulse near the NW Colombia coast each night through the period. Large NE swell will maintain seas above 8 ft in the tropical Atlc waters through early Tue evening. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... Strong 1043 mb high pres centered over the central Atlc near 40N40W will slowly shift ENE during the next few days. A stationary front extends from 31N72W to 28N74W to eastern Cuba near 21N77W. Strong N to NE winds W of the front will gradually diminish through Tue. A strong cold front will move off the SE United States coast on Wed, and weaken as it reaches from near 27N65W to the SE Bahamas by Thu evening. The front will become a westward moving trough over the far SE waters Fri. Robust high pres following the front will bring strong N to NE winds and building seas NE of the Bahamas. These conditions will diminish late Thu night through Fri. Expect hazardous seas over the Gulf Stream waters between the Bahamas and S Florida through Tue morning, with accompanying seas of 8 to 11 ft. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... Gale Warning Tue night. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Wed. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ029...W CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N W OF 80W... Gale Warning early today into today. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster McElroy. National Hurricane Center.