000 AGXX40 KNHC 140659 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 159 AM EST Sun Jan 14 2018 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... Winds and seas across the area continue to slowly diminish as high pres over the central United States heads east. Moderate to N to NE winds are noted over the western half of the Gulf, while moderate to fresh NNW to N winds are observed over the eastern half of the Gulf. Seas in the Gulf have subsided below 8 ft except in the vicinity of the Straits of Yucatan. A secondary cold front is moving from the far SE Gulf into the Florida Straits. The sustained cold advection to the lee of this secondary front will maintain fresh to strong NE winds and seas to 8 ft over the far SE waters and Straits of Florida through Tue. High pres ridging SW from the NE United States to Texas will slowly migrate E through Tue in tandem with the parent high. Fresh to locally strong N winds will become moderate to fresh NE to E winds over the Gulf Mon and Tue. Another cold front will cross the Gulf Tue night through Wed night. Latest forecast update continues to favor the GFS solution which suggests this next cold front will lack enough upper-level support to produce gales over the western Gulf. Strong winds from the NE over the far SE waters and Straits of Florida will expand in coverage beginning on Wed as strong high pres again builds over the gulf behind the next cold front. Model guidance suggests another cold front will enter the western Gulf on Fri night, but it will be relatively weak. Forecast grids favor model consensus which suggests that if low pressure develops on the front it will be weak as well. Latest GFS run is an outlier from the other models in that it is much more aggressive in developing this low off the Texas coast Fri night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... A cold front extending from central Cuba near 22N78W to Cabo Gracias a Dios Honduras near 15N83W push slowly SE then stall from E Cuba to Costa Rica tonight. Model guidance has been trending earlier with respect to the onset of minimal gales along the coast of Nicaragua this morning. Satellite-derived wind data from 0216Z indicates winds of 30 kt are already in progress E of Nicaragua as the cold front noses S along the coast. Latest forecast has advanced the onset of gales E of Nicaragua to 12Z this morning. Duration of gale will be 12 hours or so as cold advection west of the front quickly tapers off. The front will stall from E Cuba to Costa Rica tonight, then weaken and dissipate by Tue evening. Strong winds will pulse near the NW Colombia coast each night but weaken by Thu in response to a strong cold front moving east from the United States. Large swell will maintain seas above 8 ft in the tropical Atlc waters through Tue. Large long-period NE swell will continue to propagate through the tropical Atlantic waters and the Atlantic exposures of the Leeward Islands through most of Tue. Another strong cold front is expected to move across the NW and N central Caribbean Sea from Wed afternoon through Thu night followed by strong N to NE winds and building seas. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... Strong 1043 mb high pres centered over the central Atlc near 38N45W will slowly shift E during the next few days. A cold front extending from 31N72W to central Cuba near 22N78W will slow down and stall from 31N71W to E Cuba near 21N76W by this evening. A second cold front extending from 31N75W to 27N80W will lose identity by this evening as it merges with the cold front to the east. A secondary surge of cold air will funnel S behind the second cold front over the Bahamas Mon and Mon night before the front weakens. Another strong cold front will move off the SE United States coast on Wed, reach from near 31N74W to near 26N75W and to E central Cuba Wed night and from near 25N65W to vicinity SE Bahamas by late Thu. Strong NW winds will follow in behind this front. By late Thu, these winds are expected to be primarily confined to the eastern half of the area. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ029...W CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N W OF 80W... Gale Warning Sun. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster McElroy. National Hurricane Center.