000 AGXX40 KNHC 132000 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 300 PM EST Sat Jan 13 2018 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... Winds and seas across the area continue to slowly diminish as high pres builds over the area. Latest altimeter data and buoy observations indicate a maximum of 10 ft seas from about 24N to 26N between 86W and 88W. These seas will subside to 8 ft overnight tonight and to below 8 ft early on Sun at which time the 8 ft sea area will be confined to along and within 60 to 90 nm NW of the western tip of Cuba and Straits of Florida. Winds over this area will be strong from the NW to N. While the winds over much of the gulf will continue to diminish through Tue, winds over the far SE waters and Straits of Florida will be fresh to strong from the NE in direction, with seas to 8 ft. The high pres presently over the area will continue to build through early Mon, then begin to slide eastward on Tue in response to the next cold front that will move across eastern Texas. This front is expected to move over the NW Gulf Tue afternoon or early evening. The front will reach from the NE Gulf to near 26N90W and to the SW Gulf early Wed and to SE of the area Wed night. This front will be followed by strong northerly winds, except for strong to near gale force in the far western and SW gulf waters on Wed. The NE strong winds over the far SE waters and Straits of Florida will expand in coverage beginning on Wed as strong high pres again builds over the gulf behind the next cold front. Strong E to SE winds develop over the western gulf waters beginning Wed night and through Thu night as low pres forms from a coastal trough trough along the coast of southern Texas. Models generally indicated that the low will track NNE along or offshore the Texas coast through Thu night. The tight pres gradient between it and high pres to be located over the eastern gulf waters at that time will sustain strong the strong E to Se winds over the western waters. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... The cold front that recently crossed the Gulf of Mexico has pushed into the western Caribbean, and as of 18Z is analyzed from central Cuba sothwestward to 19N83W and to Gulf of Honduras at 16N87W. A pre-frontal trough extends from just S of eastern Cuba to near 13N78W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted along and within 75 nm E of the trough. Earlier noted strong NW winds behind the front have diminished some, but are expected to increase back to strong tonight as Gulf of Mexico high pres builds eastward. Residual NW swell from the central Gulf of Mexico will seep through the Yucatan Channel and into the NW Caribbean late tonight and into early on Mon building seas there to a maximum of around 9 ft. Trades are in the moderate to fresh range over the remainder of Caribbean and tropical N Atlc. NE to E winds will pulse to strong winds at night along and near the coast of Colombia through Thursday although the coverage area of these winds should decrease by then. Large long-period NE swell will continue to propagate through the tropical Atlantic waters and the Atlantic exposures of the Leeward Islands through most of Tue. The front will begin to weaken tonight through Mon night and dissipate Tue. Fresh to locally strong N winds are expected behind the front through tonight, increasing to minimal gale force on Sun within 60 nm of the coast of Nicaragua, with seas of about 8-11 ft. These winds are forecast to diminish back to strong on Sun afternoon. A strong cold front is expected to move across the NW and N central Caribbean Sea from Wed afternoon through Thu night followed by strong N to NE winds and building seas. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... A very tight pres gradient over the forecast waters between high pres of 1041 mb over the central Atlc and a cold front over the western portion of the area that extends from near 31N74W to the central Bahmas and to central Cuba as of early this afternoon is inducing an extensive area of strong SE to S winds to the N of 28N and E of the front as was noted in an Ascat pass from this morning. Seas of 7-10 ft are associated with these winds. The cold front is on track to reach from near 31N75W to the central Bahamas and to central Cuba this evening, then become stationary from 31N73W to the central Bahamas and to eastern Cuba on Sun. A post-frontal trough will quickly swing across the NW waters and help to move the cold front a little farther to SE from near 31N65W to the Windward Passage by Mon evening before it undergoes a weakening trend thereafter through Wed. A strong cold front will move off the SE United States coast on Wed, reach from near 31N74W to near 26N75W and to E central Cuba Wed night and from near 25N65W to vicinity SE Bahamas by late Thu. Strong NW winds will follow in behind this front. By late Thu, these winds are expected to be mainly over the eastern half of the area. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... ...Gale Warning... AMZ029...Within 60 nm of the coast of Nicaragua Sun morning till early afternoon. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Aguirre. National Hurricane Center.