000 AGXX40 KNHC 130659 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 159 AM EST Sat Jan 13 2018 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extending from the Florida Big Bend to the NE tip of the Yucatan Peninsula will quickly move SE and exit the Gulf basin by dawn. Strong winds over the Gulf have already subsided to fresh over the NW Gulf and will continue to subside over the remainder of the Gulf. Readings from Buoy 42001 in the central Gulf exceeded initial model guidance by 4 ft at 00Z, so initialized 00Z sea heights for the entire basin with observed data. Winds over the Gulf and associated seas will subside from west to east to under 8 ft W of 90W by midday Saturday. Meanwhile, fresh to occasionally strong northerly winds will prevail over the eastern Gulf through Sunday as a reinforcing cold front crosses the eastern Gulf Saturday afternoon. These winds will support seas to 9 ft over the SE Gulf. High pressure will build over the northern Gulf briefly early next week which will support gentle winds over the northern part of the basin, to fresh over the southeast part of the basin, moderate elsewhere. Yet another cold front will quickly cross the Gulf Tuesday night and Wednesday with strong winds following in the lee of the front. ECMWF solution suggests gales will be possible near Tampico and Veracruz following the frontal passage but maintained a blend in the forecast grids that continues to favor the GFS which generally handles the barrier jet along the Sierra Madre the best. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... Strong 1041 mb high pressure centered over the west-central Atlantic near 38N49W continues to maintain strong trade winds N of a dissipating stationary front extending from 27N35W to 25N46W to 24N58W. Winds are generally fresh over the remainder of the tropical N Atlc and all of Caribbean except along the coast of Colombia and the far NW near the Yucatan Channel. Large NE swell will continue to propagate through the tropical Atlantic waters and the Atlantic exposures of the Leeward Islands until Tue. A cold front will reach the Yucatan Channel this evening, then extend from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Sat morning, then stall from E Cuba to Costa Rica Sat night. Fresh to locally strong N winds are expected behind the front Sat, increasing to 20-30 kt Sun. Winds will be strong to near gale force along the coast of Nicaragua Sun. Strong winds will pulse near the NW Colombia coast each night through Wed night. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... A tightening pressure gradient over the forecast waters between high pressure over the central Atlc and a cold front exiting the SE United States will continue to support a large area of strong SE to S winds north of 28N and west of 70W tonight. Satellite derived wind data indicated winds to near gale force just ahead of the front near 31N78W. The cold front will pass through the Bahamas today then stall tonight through Sunday night from about 31N72W to eastern Cuba. A reinforcing surge of colder air will enter the region behind the front Sunday and Monday, helping to expand the coverage of strong winds west of the front. Seas will build to between 8 and 12 ft in the waters between the Bahamas and Bermuda. The stationary front will weaken Monday and Monday night as high pres over the eastern United States shifts toward New England. Winds over the forecast waters will diminish below 20 kt Monday night, with seas dropping below 8 ft by Tuesday night. Another cold front with accompanying strong NW winds will reach the waters east of Florida on Wednesday. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster McElroy. National Hurricane Center.