000 AGXX40 KNHC 111830 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 130 PM EST Thu Jan 11 2018 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough along the NW gulf coast will weaken and move inland through this afternoon. High pressure has shifted eastward to the W Atlantic and is now supporting moderate to fresh SE winds over the majority of the Gulf, except fresh to strong near Vera Cruz. Seas are reaching 6 ft this morning under the stronger winds over the SW Gulf, with 3 to 5 ft seas elsewhere. This pattern will prevail through tonight. An upper trough digging SE over the Central United States will develop a pre-frontal trough over the W Gulf Thu morning, moving eastward over the western Gulf through Thu afternoon, and the eastern Gulf Fri. Fresh to strong SW winds will develop just E of this trough as it crosses the Gulf basin with seas building to 6 to 7 ft. Meanwhile, a strong cold front will emerge off the NW gulf coast Thu evening. Gale force NW winds are expected behind this front as it crosses the western Gulf Thu night into Fri morning. Seas will build as high as 16 ft over the northwest Gulf under this gale, with 8 to 12 ft seas lingering over the central and western Gulf through Fri. The front will exit the SE Gulf early Sat morning, with fresh to strong winds over the central and eastern Gulf behind the front. High pressure building across the eastern united states in the wake of the front will support prevailing 15 to 20 kt northerly flow over the basin Fri night through Sat, with a reinforcing cold front increasing winds to 20 to 25 kt over the majority of the basin Sat night. The strong winds will then become confined to the eastern Gulf on Sun. The winds behind secondary front will support seas of 6 to 8 ft. Weak ridging will become established over the northern Gulf early next week with gentle winds over the northern Gulf and moderate to fresh winds over the southern Gulf, with seas ranging from 1 ft over the northern Gulf to 5 ft over the southern Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... A weak surface trough from Cozumel, Mexico to just east of Nicaragua will slowly dissipate through tonight as it drifts NW. The weak pressure pattern over the western Caribbean will support gentle to moderate winds through much of Fri before a cold front reaches the NW Caribbean. This cold front will move SE and reach from central Cuba to E Honduras Sat morning, then stalling from E Cuba to Costa Rica Sat night. Fresh to locally strong northerly winds can be expected behind this front through Sat. A secondary front will push into the W Caribbean Sat night and will increase winds to strong to near gale W of the stationary front Sun morning into Sun night. Models continue to suggest that a small area of gale force winds will develop near the coast of Nicaragua on Sun. Winds will slowly diminish early next weak as high pressure north of the area weakens and the front dissipates. Elsewhere over the Caribbean, fresh to strong trades are expected today through Fri night as high pressure builds east over the western Atlantic. Seas to 8 ft will be possible during this time. The high will continue to shift east to the central Atlc this weekend, allowing for winds to diminish somewhat over this portion of the basin. Another area of high pressure building over northern Gulf of Mexico early next week will support nocturnal strong pulses near the NE coast of Colombia. Fresh trades and seas of 7 to 10 ft will continue to affect the tropical Atlantic zones through tonight. High pres building eastward to the north of the region will increase winds to fresh to locally strong over the zones north of 16N Fri and Sat. Although winds will decrease below 20 kt by late Sun, the 7 to 10 ft swell will continue to affect the tropical Atlantic waters through Mon night. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... A surface trough extending from just offshore Daytona Beach, Florida to the Florida Keys will drift north today. Fresh to strong SE winds between W Atlantic high pressure NW of Bermuda and the trough will continue N of the Bahamas through Fri, veering to the S then SW Fri night as a cold front emerges off the Florida coast. Seas of 8 to 11 ft will continue during this time period over this area. The cold front will move SE Sat across the Bahamas and stall briefly Sat night into Sun from about 31N70W to eastern Cuba. Then, a reinforcing cold front will cross the waters N of the Bahamas Sun, merging with the stalled front Sun night and then continuing east of 65W by Mon night. Mainly moderate to fresh northerly winds are expected behind the first front, except for locally strong winds S of 25N W of the this front. Seas of 6 to 8 ft are expected behind the first front, becoming 7 to 9 ft E of the Bahamas as the secondary front passes. The area of high pressure NW of Bermuda also supports fresh to strong SE to E winds S of 25N E of 73W, including the Turks and Caicos, with seas of 8 to 9 ft. The winds will decrease to just below 20 kt late this week as the high shifts east. However, swell of 8 to 10 ft will continue E of 65W S of 22N into early next week. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ011...NW GULF INCLUDING STETSON BANK... Gale Warning tonight into Fri. .GMZ013...N CENTRAL GULF INCLUDING FLOWER GARDEN BANKS MARINE SANCTUARY... Gale Warning tonight into Fri. .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... Gale Warning tonight into Fri. .GMZ019...CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W... Gale Warning tonight into Fri. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... Gale Warning tonight into Fri. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ029...W CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N W OF 80W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sun into Sun night. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Latto. National Hurricane Center.