000 AGXX40 KNHC 070805 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 305 AM EST Sun Jan 7 2018 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... A weak surface trough extends from N to S along 92W in the Gulf, while ridging dominates the rest of the basin. Fresh to strong winds are E of the trough to 87W, as well as in the SE Gulf through the Straits of Florida where the pressure gradient is tight. Seas are up to 5-8 ft in the areas of strongest winds, with 2-4 ft elsewhere. The trough will gradually dissipate through the morning as it shifts to the W-NW while ridging builds in its wake. Return flow will dominate the basin until early Mon when the next cold front will enter the NW Gulf. Fresh to strong winds are likely on either side of the front N of 26N. An area of low pres associated with the front is forecast to move into the N central waters Mon afternoon and evening. The low will then shift to the SE Gulf Tue into early Wed while gradually weakening. The low should become a remnant trough by Wed night while return flow becomes re- established into the end of the week ahead of the next cold front, which may enter the western Gulf late Thu night into Fri. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... A stationary front extends from near the Windward Passage to across Jamaica to western Panama. A tight pressure gradient is within 240 nm W-NW of the front, and an earlier scatterometer pass showed gale force NE winds in the lee of central Cuba and fresh to strong N-NE flow elsewhere in this area. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms can also be found within 180 nm either side of the boundary. Meanwhile, a surface trough is in the eastern Caribbean extending from the Mona Passage to near the A-B-C Islands. Isolated to scattered showers are occurring in the vicinity of the trough with moderate to locally fresh trades found E of the stationary front. The stationary front is forecast to gradually dissipate to a remnant trough through the end of the weekend with gale force winds diminishing in the lee of Cuba by this evening. Meanwhile, the tight pres gradient will translate to the approach to the Windward Passage where NE gale force winds are forecast this afternoon through the night. Winds will then diminish across the western Caribbean Mon with a weak pres gradient persisting there through the week. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail through the next several days across the eastern Caribbean, except pulsing to strong NW of the coast of Colombia. In the tropical N Atlantic, moderate to fresh trades will prevail through the next several days. Northerly swells of 8-11 ft will persist through the early part of the week, subsiding to 6-9 ft thereafter. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... A stationary front extends from weak low pres near 25N65W to near the Windward Passage, with high pressure ridging extending from the Carolinas W of the boundary. An earlier scatterometer pass showed fresh to strong NE winds within S of 26N and W of the front, which are in the process of increasing to gale force S of 24N within 240 nm W of the front as the pres gradient is tightening. Meanwhile, a reinforcing front is dropping S of 31N and will extend from near Bermuda to just NE of the northern Bahamas by sunrise. This front will usher in fresh to strong northerly flow behind it as well. The gale force winds W of the stationary front are forecast to persist through this evening, then will diminish as the front gradually dissipates to a remnant trough. Meanwhile, the reinforcing front will stall and gradually dissipate as well. The remnant boundaries will merge by mid-week with a large area of fresh to strong NE-E flow developing N of the remnant trough which will extend roughly along 27N. The trough will gradually drift NW through the end of the week as ridging builds in from the central Atlantic. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ013...CARIBBEAN N OF 18N BETWEEN 76W AND 85W INCLUDING CAYMAN BASIN... Gale Warning today. .AMZ015...CARIBBEAN APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE... Gale Warning today into tonight. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ117...BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAY SAL BANK... Gale Warning today. .AMZ119...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N E OF BAHAMAS TO 70W... Gale Warning today into tonight. .AMZ121...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... Gale Warning today. .AMZ123...ATLANTIC S OF 22N W OF 70W INCLUDING APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE... Gale Warning early today into tonight. .AMZ125...ATLANTIC S OF 22N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W INCLUDING PUERTO RICO TRENCH... Gale Warning today. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Lewitsky. National Hurricane Center.