000 AGXX40 KNHC 041932 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 232 PM EST Thu Jan 4 2018 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... Strong high pres over Texas ridges S along the Tamaulipas and Veracruz coast of Mexico. The ridge will maintain strong N winds over the southern Bay of Campeche today. Satellite-derived wind data from around 1450Z indicates moderate to fresh NW to N winds prevail over the basin outside the bay of Campeche. Strong NW winds are continuing along the coast of Mexico near Veracruz where the barrier jet along the Sierra Madre is strongest. Winds and seas will continue to diminish from N to S through Sat as the high slides E. The high will continue E to the W Atlc as low pres moves into the southern plains, E to SE return flow over the Gulf could become strong E of 90W on Sun. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... A cold front from the Windward Passage to 16N79W to the Panama Canal is stalling and will gradually weaken through late Fri. Broad low pressure centered near 10N80W will remain nearly stationary and dissipate by Fri. A trough extending NE from the low to 16N75W will lose identity and merge with the frontal boundary by Fri afternoon. Reinforcing cold air behind the front will combine with the low pressure trough to support gale force N winds until this evening off the northern coast of Panama. Large seas to 14 ft are likely east of Nicaragua southward to the northern coast of Panama. Showers and thunderstorms are continuing along and within 60 nm either side of the trough axis as well. Fresh to strong winds are expected SW of eastern Cuba today and tonight, and through the Windward Passage tonight into Sun night. The front will weaken into a trough by Sun and retreat westward, allowing strong winds over the western Caribbean to subside by Mon. Large NW and NE swell will invade the Atlc waters and Caribbean passages late Fri through this weekend. A ridge building westward from the central Atlc will cause strong winds to develop north of Colombia and Venezuela Mon and Tue. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... A large low pres system possessing sustained hurricane force winds as shown by the latest Scatterometry is currently located well N of the forecast waters just E of Virginia. This system possesses an expansive area of gale force winds that extends southward to N of 28N between 65W and 77W. The low will deepen further and continue generating large NW swell. A trailing cold front extending SSW from 31N67W to the Windward Passage will stall from near 31N55W to Hispaniola by Sat morning. A cold front trailing from the low extends from 31N67W to 25N70W to the Windward Passage near 20N74W. Scatterometer data still shows a large area of 30-40 kt winds north of 28N between 65W and 77W. Gale conditions will likely persist over this area today. Readings from buoys 41002 and 41048 suggest seas will be peaking along 31N on the high side of model guidance between 20 and 30 ft later this afternoon. Strong winds E of the Bahamas will subside Fri, but long period swell will maintain 8-13 ft seas east of the Bahamas until Sat. The front will stall from 30N58W to Haiti Fri night through Sun. Strong high pres building N of the front will bring strong NE to E winds to the Bahamas Sun through Mon before the front dissipates. Seas are expected to remain above 8 ft outside the Bahamas until Tue. Fresh SE winds will develop over the NW waters Mon ahead of the next cold front expected to move off the U.S. mainland on Tuesday. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... Gale Warning today. .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... Gale Warning today. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster McElroy. National Hurricane Center.