000 AGXX40 KNHC 031925 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 225 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2018 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure ridging southward along the Sierra Madre Oriental is being reinforced by a secondary surge of cold air from the southern plains of the United States. The strengthened ridge will generate minimal gales along the coast of Mexico near Tampico until around mid afternoon today and along the coast of Mexico near Veracruz until this evening. Seas will peak today around 15 feet in the areas affected by gales. Otherwise, fresh to strong NW to N winds prevail elsewhere across the basin. The NW to N winds will veer slowly and gradually subside to moderate speeds by Thu afternoon. Moderate NE winds will then prevail through Sat as high pres slides eastward over the eastern United States toward the western Atlc. Moderate to fresh SE return flow will set up over the Gulf Sun evening as the high moves further east. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... A stationary front extends from western Cuba near 22N82W to 19N83W to 16N85W. Broad troughing extends NNE over the Caribbean from Panama to Haiti, anchored by a 1009 mb surface low centered near 10N80W. The low and trough are serving as the focus for showers and thunderstorms between Jamaica and Panama. Fresh N-NE winds are observed W of the trough, on either side of the front. Model guidance indicates the front is beginning to move SE as a cold front. The front will slow down once again and become stationary from Hispaniola to Panama Thu and Fri. The stalled front will help funnel cold air southward east of central America Thu through Sat night, causing seas to build to between 8 and 13 ft in the waters adjacent to Nicaragua, Costa Rica and northern Panama. Fresh to strong winds are expected SW of eastern Cuba Thu and Thu night and then through the Windward Passage Thu night through Sun night. The front will weaken into a trough by Sun and begin retreating westward. Strong winds over the western Caribbean will subside by Mon. As winds subside over the western Caribbean, a high pres ridge building westward from the central Atlc to N of the Caribbean will cause strong winds to expand northward from the coasts of Colombia and Venezuela Sun morning over most of the eastern and central Caribbean by Tue morning. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... A stationary front extends from 29N65W to 27N73W, then continues as a warm front through the Bahamas to a 1009 mb surface low centered near Miami. A stationary front extends SW from the low to the coast of Cuba near 23N81W. Scatterometer data shows a band of 30-35 kt NE winds north of the front between 70W and 79W. Forecast models remain in good agreement in calling for the low to undergo explosive deepening and move quickly NE to pass about 200 nm E of Cape Hatteras Thu morning. The low will drag a strong cold front eastward through the Bahamas waters tonight and Thu. Gale conditions are likely over much of the area north of 26N tonight through Thu night as the system becomes a large storm force low near 31N75W. Seas could peak near 20 ft in the northern waters on Thu. Strong winds E of the Bahamas will subside Fri, but long period swell will maintain 8-13 ft seas east of the Bahamas until Sat. The cold front trailing the low will stall from 30N58W to Haiti Fri night through Sun. Strong high pres building N of the front will bring strong NE to E winds to the Bahamas Sun through Mon before the front dissipates. Mixed trade- wind swell and N swell will maintain seas above 8 ft outside the Bahamas until Tue. Strong SW winds will arrive over the NW waters Tue afternoon ahead of the next cold front moving SE from the United States mainland. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... Gale Warning today into tonight. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... Gale Warning today into Thu. .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... Gale Warning today. Storm Warning tonight. Gale Warning Thu into Thu night. .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... Gale Warning tonight into Thu night. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster McElroy. National Hurricane Center.