000 AGXX40 KNHC 021920 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 220 PM EST Tue Jan 2 2018 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure ridging southward along the Sierra Madre Oriental is combining with surface troughing just off the Tamaulipas and Veracruz coasts of Mexico to funnel strong to near gale force winds southward over these coastal waters as shown by scatterometer data from around 1530Z this morning. Otherwise, fresh to strong NE winds prevail across the remainder of the basin. Model guidance indicates the very tight pressure gradient over the Gulf of Mexico will relax overnight as strong high pres slides E over the United States. Winds over the Gulf will briefly subside to fresh speeds this evening before a reinforcing push of cold air heads southward over the western Gulf on Wednesday. Models have come into good agreement in bringing gales to the favored locations near Tampico on Wed morning and near Veracruz Wed Afternoon. N to NE winds over the Gulf will subside and become moderate Thu afternoon through Sat as high pres slides eastward over the eastern United States toward the western Atlc. Moderate to fresh SE return flow will set up over the Gulf by Sun evening as the high pres to the N continues E. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... A cold front pushing into the far NW Caribbean from the Straits of Yucatan extends from western Cuba near 23N82W to 21N87W. Broad troughing extends NNE over the Caribbean from Panama to Haiti. Surface low pres of 1009 mb anchoring the southern terminus of the trough is serving as the focus for scattered moderate and isolated strong convection over the central Caribbean from 11N to 15N between 73W and 80W. Moderate to fresh NE winds are observed W of the trough and E winds at the same speeds are taking place E of the trough. Model guidance indicates the front will move SE from the Yucatan Peninsula and stretch from central Cuba to eastern Honduras by Wed morning. The front will become nearly stationary from Hispaniola to Panama Thu and Fri. Low pressure and troughing over the central Caribbean will merge with the front on Fri. The stationary front will help funnel cold air southward E of the terrain of central America and S of Cuba over the Caribbean Thu through Sat night. Seas will build to 8-11 ft in the waters adjacent to Nicaragua, Costa Rica and northern Panama Thu through Fri night. Fresh to strong winds are expected SW of eastern Cuba Thu and Thu night and through the Windward Passage Fri through Sat night. Winds will subside as the front weakens on Sun night. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... A strong cold front extends from 31N64W through the Bahamas near 26N78W to western Cuba near 23N81W. Altimetry from 1324Z this morning showed seas running between 14 and 16 feet N of the front near 29N74W. Satellite-derived wind data from about 2 hours later indicated winds to minimal gale force just E of the Florida coast between Melbourne and West Palm Beach. The cold front is kinking over the Bahamas and beginning to stall as an area of low pressure begins to develop as a wave along the front. Forecast models all indicate this low will deepen rapidly and then quickly move NE off the east coast of the U.S. Wed and Thu. Gale conditions are likely to affect much of the area north of 27N Wed night through Thu night as the system becomes a large storm, then hurricane force low north of the area. Seas could peak near 20 ft in the northern waters Thu afternoon. Strong winds east of the Bahamas will subside on Fri, but long period swell will maintain 8-13 ft seas east of the Bahamas until Sat. The cold front trailing the departing low will stall over the waters near 22N by Sun afternoon. Strong high pres building N of the front will bring strong NE to E winds to the Bahamas Sun through Mon. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... Gale Warning tonight into Wed. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... Gale Warning Wed into Wed night. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... Gale Warning Wed into Wed night. .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... Gale Warning tonight into Thu. .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... Gale Warning Wed night into Thu. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster McElroy. National Hurricane Center.