000 AGXX40 KNHC 020806 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 306 AM EST Tue Jan 2 2018 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... A strong cold front has moved south of the basin. Scatterometer data this morning shows 40-45 kt winds near the coast of southern Mexico in an area from 19N to 21N west of 95W. 30-35 kt winds are evident further north along the Mexican coast south of 25N W of 96W. Fresh to strong NE winds prevail across the remainder of the basin. Model guidance indicates the very tight pressure gradient over the Gulf of Mexico will relax slightly later today, with NW winds along the coast of southern Mexico diminishing to around 30 kt as a result. A reinforcing push of cold air will race south on Wednesday, and gales are expected once more south of 21N west of 95W Wed into Wed evening. N to NE winds in the Gulf will subside, becoming moderate Thu afternoon through Sat as high pres slides eastward over the eastern United States toward the western Atlc. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... A cold front has pushed south of the Gulf of Mexico into the NW Caribbean, and extends from western Cuba into northern Belize. Scatterometer data this morning shows fresh to strong northerly winds north of the front, and moderate to fresh trade winds else- where across the basin. Model guidance indicates the front will become nearly stationary tonight from eastern Cuba to Nicaragua, and a surface trough will develop north of Panama along 78-79W with an area of low pressure centered near 11N79W by Wed night. This will induce strong north winds along the Central American coast from Nicaragua to Costa Rica Wed night and Thu. Reinforc- ing cold air will allow the cold front to push far south into the western Caribbean on Thursday, and extend from Windward Passage to the Panama Canal by Thu night. Seas will build to 8-11 ft in the waters adjacent to Nicaragua, Costa Rica and northern Panama Thu through Fri night. Fresh to strong winds are expected SW of eastern Cuba Thu and Thu night and through the Windward Passage Fri through Sat night. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... A strong cold front extends from 31N66W through the Bahamas to eastern Cuba. Buoy observations near St. Augustine FL show near gale force winds, and 10-12 ft seas. The cold front will push further southward this morning, then stall in the evening as an area of low pressure develops as a wave along the front near the Bahamas. Forecast models indicate this low will deepen rapidly and move NE along the east coast of the U.S. Wed and Thu. Gale conditions are likely, and could affect much of the area north of 27N Wed night through Thu night as the system becomes a large storm force low north of the area. Seas could peak near 20 ft in northern waters Thu afternoon. Strong winds east of the Bahamas will subside on Fri, but long period swell will maintain 8-13 ft seas east of the Bahamas until Sat. The cold front will stall from 25N65W to Hispaniola Fri, then remain nearly stationary through Sun. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... Gale Warning tonight. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... Gale Warning early today. Gale Warning Wed into Wed night. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... Gale Warning Wed into Wed night. .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... Gale Warning Wed night. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Thu. .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... Gale Warning Wed night. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Thu. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Mundell. National Hurricane Center.