000 AGXX40 KNHC 011933 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 233 PM EST Mon Jan 1 2018 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extending from 1018 mb low pres near Tampa FL to 24N88W to 23N95W to 21N97W will move SE and exit the SE Gulf on Tue morning. Satellite-derived wind data indicate strong high pres building behind the front has already begun generating gale force winds near Tampico, Mexico. The gales should continue there through this evening and then near Veracruz tonight and Tue. The cold front will move to the SE of the Gulf by dawn on Tue. Model guidance remains in good agreement on the timing and duration of gale force winds over the waters near Veracruz tonight and Tue. Winds over all but the SW and NE Gulf will diminish to moderate by Tue night. However, a reinforcing shot of cold air will enter the Gulf early Wed morning. This secondary surge of cold air will usher in a repeat performance of gales near Tampico on Wed and near Veracruz Wed night. N to NE winds over the Gulf will subside to moderate speeds Thu afternoon through Sat as high pres slides E over the eastern United States toward the western Atlc. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... Latest scatterometer data show moderate to fresh winds generally prevailing over the basin. Altimeter and buoy readings show seas in the 3 to 6-foot range. Moderate to fresh trades will continue across the basin through Wed PM as the pressure gradient remains weak due to a cold front moving E from the United States mainland weakening the ridge over the western Atlc. The cold front will enter the NW Caribbean waters early Tue morning, but the front will gradually weaken as it approaches eastern Cuba and Nicaragua. However, the front will be reinforced by more cold air from the NW as low pressure over the Bahamas deepens rapidly and pulls out quickly to the NE. Fresh to strong northerly winds will follow the front across the NW and SW waters Wed night through Sat. Seas will build to between 8 and 11 ft in the waters adjacent to Nicaragua, Costa Rica and northern Panama Thu through Fri night. Fresh to strong winds are forecast to the lee of eastern Cuba Thu and Thu night and and through the Windward Passage Fri through Sat night. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... A strong cold front extends WSW from 31N73W to near Cape Canaveral, Florida. Satellite-derived wind data and altimetry from around 14Z indicate winds over the forecast waters to the the front are near gale to gale force with seas quickly increasing to 12 ft near 31N. The cold front will sink southeastward and begin to slow down today and tonight. Cold air behind the front will steepen low-level lapse rates and allow strong to near gale-force N to NE winds to spread southward over the northern Bahamas Tue through early Wed morning. Winds will briefly diminish Wed afternoon as the front stalls in response to a vigorous impulse of energy approaching at mid levels from the WNW. Models remain in good agreement in developing a large area of rapidly deepening low pressure near the northern Bahamas Wed afternoon lifting quickly to the NE. Gales could affect much of the waters N of 27N Wed night through Thu night as this system could become a large gale center. Seas could peak near 20 ft near 31N67W Thu afternoon. Strong winds east of the Bahamas will subside on Fri, but long period swell will maintain seas between 8 and 13 ft east of the Bahamas until early this weekend. The cold front will stall from near 31N50W to Hispaniola on Sun. Strong winds and seas to 11 ft could materialize E of the bahamas during this time frame as high pres builds E N of the front over the western Atlc. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... Gale Warning today. Gale Warning Wed. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... Gale Warning today into tonight. Gale Warning Wed. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Wed into Wed night. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... Gale Warning today into Tue. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Wed into Wed night. .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... Gale Warning tonight. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Wed into Thu night. .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Wed night into Thu night. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster McElroy. National Hurricane Center.