000 AGXX40 KNHC 251847 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 147 PM EST Mon Dec 25 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... A reinforcing cold front that moved into the northern Gulf overnight has merged with a previous weaker cold front over the central and southwest Gulf. The merged cold front extends from W Central Florida to 23N95W, then is stationary to 19N96W. The western half of the front will lift north as a warm front while weakening across the western Gulf beginning tonight, and stall across the northwest Gulf through Tue. This may enhance scattered convection is some areas while supporting brief patchy fog elsewhere over the northwest Gulf. A weak frontal wave forms along the dissipating boundary Tue but will be short lived ahead of another cold front that will move through the lower Mississippi Valley and Texas coastal plains Tue, and into the northern Gulf by late Wed where it will overtake the earlier dissipating front. The new front will be followed by fresh to locally strong NE winds late Wed, diminishing into Thu as another frontal wave passes eastward along the boundary. Northern winds increase over the western Gulf Thu night after the frontal shifts east. This will allow the front to move into the southern Gulf through Fri and stall Sat ahead of yet another front entering the northern Gulf Fri night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... Expect strong trades over the Central and SW Caribbean through Thu, with near gale force nocturnal winds near the coast of Colombia. The pressure gradient will relax some on Fri night, but still maintain a small area of strong trades along the NW coast of Colombia. Fresh to locally strong NE winds are expected through the Windward Passage on Tue evening. Large E swell will build seas to 9 ft E of the Lesser Antilles along 55W beginning tonight, with these swells reaching the E Atlc passages on Tue evening, and continue through Thu evening. Expect seas of 6-8 ft only across the tropical waters E of the Windwards Fri and Sat. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... A cold front extending SW from 31N75W to 28N81W will stall from 29N65W to the Straits of Florida tonight into early Tue, then gradually weaken through Thu as the frontal remnants lift N as a weak warm front. The forecast remains uncertain through late in the week. While all major models indicate a frontal wave forming north of the Bahamas late in the week, there continues to be a lot of disagreement between models and between model runs regarding specific times, locations, and impacts. The general scenario is a surface low will develop along the front northeast of the Bahamas by late Thu or early Fri, and race east passing near Bermuda by early Sat while dragging a new cold front southeast through the Central Bahamas. Strong winds and seas to 10 ft may accompany the low pressure area north of 27N from late Thu into Sat. The front will stall across the central Bahamas and Straits of Florida through late Sat. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Christensen. National Hurricane Center.