000 AGXX40 KNHC 051813 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 113 PM EST Tue Dec 5 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... A strong cold front will enter the NW Gulf this afternoon. A weak low is expected to develop along the front near south Texas, which will push the western part of the front southward and drag the eastern part slowly across the remainder of the basin through Fri. Strong to gale force northerly winds and rough seas are expected in the wake of the front. Latest model guidance indicates a stronger cold front, with gale force winds extending over several forecast zones, including the SE gulf waters. Strong winds with frequent gusts to gale force are expected by Wed morning behind the front, with winds increasing to gale force over the west-central gulf on Thu, and over the SW gulf by Thu night. On Fri, gale conditions may extend eastward across the forecast zones S of 26N. At that time, computer model shows a 1035 mb high pressure over north-central Mexico producing a tight pressure gradient over the gulf region. 12 ft seas are likely to occur in the central and western Gulf Thu through late Fri night, with a peak close to 18 ft in the SW Gulf. Based on marine guidance, the front will reach a position from the western Florida Panhandle to a 1012 mb low pres near 26N96W to near Tampico, Mexico by early Wed morning, and from Tampa Bay to a 1012 mb low pres near 25N92W to near Veracruz, Mexico by Thu morning. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... Trade winds will remain fresh to strong in the central Caribbean through Thu then diminish Fri, producing seas up to 12 ft tonight into early Wed morning. Seas up to 8 ft may affect the offshore Windward Island zones due to easterly swell from trades on Wed. Large northerly swell from a gale-force winter low in the central Atlantic will begin affecting the offshore waters of the entire Lesser Antilles Thu. Combined seas from these northerly swell along with trade wind swell will build seas to 10 or 11 ft Fri and Sat. A strong cold front will reach the NW Caribbean by Fri night. Strong northerly winds behind the front will be enhanced in the Yucatan Channel, possibly reaching minimal gale force. The front is forecast to extend from eastern Cuba to the eastern tip of Honduras by late Sat. Strong northerly winds and building seas of 10-15 ft will follow the front on Sat. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... High pressure dominates the forecast waters. Scatterometer data provided observations of fresh to strong easterly winds S of 27N, including the Old Bahama Channel. Buoy and ship observations indicate seas up to 10 ft within this area of winds E of the Bahamas. Moderate to locally fresh winds are noted N of 27N. Building high pressure across the forecast waters will continue to support fresh to strong trades north of the Greater Antilles through Wed, causing seas to build to 10 ft east of the Bahamas. A weak cold front will move east of NE Florida Wed night, but not progress much and remain nearly stationary through Fri, then reinforcing cold air will push the front SE into the Bahamas Sat. Fresh to strong winds are expected on either side of the front on Sat. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ015...NE GULF N OF 25N E OF 87W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Fri night. .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... Gale Warning Thu. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Thu into Fri. .GMZ019...CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Fri into Fri night. .GMZ021...E GULF FROM 22N TO 25N E OF 87W INCLUDING STRAITS OF FLORIDA... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Fri night. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Thu night into Fri. .GMZ025...E BAY OF CAMPECHE INCLUDING CAMPECHE BANK... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Fri into Fri night. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ011...CARIBBEAN N OF 18N W OF 85W INCLUDING YUCATAN BASIN... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Fri night. .AMZ029...W CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N W OF 80W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sun into Sun night. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.