000 AGXX40 KNHC 050823 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 323 AM EST Tue Dec 5 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... A strong cold front will enter the NW Gulf Tue night. A weak low is expected to develop along the front near south Texas, which will push the western part of the front southward and drag the eastern part slowly across the remainder of the basin through Fri. Winds should reach gale force over portions of the west- central and southwestern waters Thu and Fri. Gales are also possible over the central Gulf on Thu. 12 ft seas are likely to occur in the central and western Gulf from Thu morning until late Fri night with a peak close to 17 ft in the extreme SW Gulf. Timing of the frontal passage over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, in particular, is uncertain with the 12Z GFS showing a Friday afternoon crossing of South Florida, while the 12Z UK and ECMWF indicating about 24 hours later. Unclear at this lead time which is correct, so taking a blend of these solutions for the forecast. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... Trade winds will remain fresh to strong in the central Caribbean through Thu then diminish Fri, producing 8-11 ft seas by Thu. Seas up to 8 ft may affect the offshore Windward Island zones due to easterly swell from trades on Wed. Large northerly swell from a gale-force winter low in the central Atlantic will begin affecting the offshore waters of the entire Lesser Antilles Thu. Combined seas from these northerly swell along with trade wind swell will build to 11 ft Fri and Sat. A cold front will reach the NW Caribbean early Sat. The timing of the event is uncertain with the GFS suggesting as early as Fri night while the UKMET and ECMWF indicate a Sat afternoon crossing. Strong northerly winds behind the front will be enhanced in the Yucatan Channel. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... A weakening stationary front north of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico will become diffuse Wed. Building high pressure along 70W will support fresh to strong trades north of the Greater Antilles through Wed, causing seas to build to 10 ft east of the Bahamas. A weak cold front will move east of NE Florida Wed night, but not progress much and remain nearly stationary through Fri, then reinforcing cold air will push the front SE into the Bahamas Sat. Moderate NE swell to 10 ft will reach eastern zones on Thursday. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Thu night. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Thu night into Fri. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Mundell. National Hurricane Center.