000 AGXX40 KNHC 010812 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 312 AM EST Fri Dec 1 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front crosses the NW waters from the western tip of Florida to SE of Brownsville near 25N96W. A NW- SE oriented surface trough extends from the NW Gulf near 26N92W to the Yucatan peninsula near 21N90W. Light to moderate winds are observed over the gulf waters. Seas are running between 2 and 4 ft based on buoy observations and the latest satellite-derived sea height data. The trough will migrate SW across the western Gulf to the coast of mexico by Sat evening. High pressure will then build across the area this weekend into early next week. Little change in wind speeds and sea heights are expected through Sun, then model consensus calls for winds of 15-20 kt and seas building to between 4 and 6 ft by Monday evening, particularly from the Yucatan Channel to the Texas coast. This will be the result of a tighter pressure gradient between high pressure over the SE United States and a low pressure trough along the coast of Mexico. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... Broad cyclonic flow prevails over the Caribbean. A weak trough just W of the Windward Islands has no significant convection associated with it. A sharper surface trough hugs the coast of central America between NE Honduras to northern Belize. The monsoon trough crosses the SW Caribbean along 10N. The latest scatterometer data shows fresh to strong winds over the south- central Caribbean and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere across the Caribbean as well as the tropical N Atlantic forecast zones. Seas range from 5-7 ft in the south- central Caribbean and 3-5 ft elsewhere over the Caribbean, and 5-6 ft over the tropical N Atlantic forecast zones. The trough will linger over the western waters though the weekend into early next week. The area of fresh to strong winds will continue today before diminishing Friday. By Sat night, expect increasing winds and building seas to the S of Cuba, then on Sun night winds will begin to increase across the Windward Passage and the south- central Caribbean. This will be caused by high pressure building eastward over the western Atlc from the United States mainland. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... Developing 1010 mb low pres is centered over the NE waters near 26N67W. A stationary front extends E from the low to 27N64W to 26N52W. A trough extends SW from the low to near the N coast of the Dominican Republic. Fresh to locally strong winds and seas to 9 ft are noted in the N semicircle of the low within 240 nm. The low will swing ENE and deepen during the next 24 hours, reaching a position near 27N63W by Fri morning. Moderate to fresh NE winds prevail over the Bahamas due to the pressure gradient between the low and high pressure over the SE CONUS. As the low pressure exits the forecast area, high pressure will build E in its wake. By late Fri, mainly moderate to fresh N to NE winds will dominate the area, with seas of 4-6 ft E of the Bahamas, and 2-4 ft W of the Bahamas. Seas of 4-6 ft can be expected across the Straits of Florida through this weekend due to persistent moderate to fresh NE winds. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster McElroy. National Hurricane Center.