000 AGXX40 KNHC 161028 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 528 AM EST Thu Nov 16 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure across the N Gulf states will ENE through early Sat with ridge reorganizing and extending SW into central Gulf late Fri through Sat ahead of approaching cold front. Models in better agreement on front moving off TX coast early Sat night and moving SE across basin, reaching from near Sarasota to W Bay of Campeche Sun evening. Strong N to NE winds behind front 20-25 kt to pump up seas 8-10 ft, with brief gales suggested along Mexican coastal waters early Sun through Sun night around 06Z. Models capturing current conditions well and no adjustments to initialization. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... Broad troughing has developed prevails over the W half of Caribbean as forecast. Fresh N to NNE across much of NW basin producing seas 4-6 ft as suggested by buoy obs and possibly slight higher than wave guidance. Fresh SW flow developing SE of trough along coast of Colombia and GFS has backed off slightly in strength of this flow next 24-36 hrs. Seas may not quite reach 8 ft in that fetch as previously forecast but should hit 6-7 ft. Trough to drift E into central Caribbean Fri and Sat, where it will stall and weaken through Sun. Broad weak and benign low may develop within trough Sat through Sun. Moderate E to SE trades to develop E of trough E of 70W late Sun through Mon. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... Ill defined dissipating cold front across NW waters extends swd along about 80W into SE FL coastal waters where evening ASCAT pass showed NLY winds a bit above 20 kt. Coastal buoys remain 5-6 ft at 8-10 secs while 41009 peaked at 9 ft at 07Z. This 2-3 ft above wave guidance and have adjusted in the short term. High pres will build E off SE U.S. through Sat and push this weak boundary SE to 30N65W to the N central Bahamas by Fri evening with broad area of 20 kt of NE winds building behind front to increase seas 7-9 ft E of Bahamas and 3-6 ft in lee of Bahamas and into Straits. Elongated trough from E Cuba NE into central Atlc gale center near 32N54.5W will drift ESE through the weekend and weaken with building high pres inducing enough pres gradient between trough and front for NE winds near 20 kt and seas 7-8 ft E of Bahamas Fri night through Sat night. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sun. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sun night. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Stripling. National Hurricane Center.