000 AGXX40 KNHC 151039 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 539 AM EST Wed Nov 15 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... Remnants of llvl trough have shifted SW past 24 hours and now from near 22N96W to E Bay of Campeche with fresh NE winds behind it moving in dynamic fetch and maintain area of 8 ft seas N of Yucatan Peninsula and Channel per recent altimeter pass. High pres across Ern US ridging SW into NE Gulf and nudging an ill defined cold front across SW N Atlc waters to SE FL coast producing significant area of 20 kt NE winds across Big Bend region and W coastal waters to Naples earlier tonight per ASCAT pass and kicked up seas 5-7 ft. winds appeared to have dropped off along the coast and shifted more ENE farther offshore per recent buoy obs. No sig changes to recent guidance in the short term. However, models have slowed the arrival of next cold front to Sat evening with all global models in decent agreement with latest runs. front to reach SE gulf to W Bay of Campeche by sun evening with good chance for brief gales along Veracruz coastal area. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... Troughing becoming more definitive from Windward Passage along NW coast of Jamaica to Gulf of Honduras. High pres nosing SW into NE Gulf of Mexico behind Atlc front also inducing enough pres gradient to allow for NNE to NE winds around 20 kt to spill into NW Carib in the lee of Cuba and maintaining 4-7 ft seas there. Elongated trough to develop today from coastal Panama to Jamaica area with atypical SW flow freshening from Gulf of Panama across the peninsula and NNE into central Carib. 20-25 kt SW winds and 8 ft seas expected by Thu noon or so and gradually shift NE in a smaller area through Fri as weak and benign low moves slowly NNE withing the generally E drifting trough. No major changes from recent guidance. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... A weak and ill defined cold front has continued to push SSE along the FL coastal waters overnight and appears to have reached from 31N73W to almost the FLL coast. Evening ASCAT pass showed NNE winds 20-25 kt across the coastal waters and area of likely 25-28 kt Palm Beach to MLB where coastal buoys jumped to 8-9 ft. 2340Z altimeter pass also showed 10-11 ft seas offshore of the Cape and likely within that strong area of winds diving S along the coast and over the gulfstream. Have attempted to adjust model wave heights up a few ft to account for this. Front to moves slowly SE next few days and weaken and will nearly merge with elongated troughing currently from E Cuba snaking NE to near 30N60W. Fresh NE winds behind the weakening front will keep seas at or just below 8 ft this afternoon through early Fri before pres gradient tightens E of Bahamas for slight increase in winds and seas. Low to develop along trough later this morning near 29N62W and deepen quickly to produce Sly gales NE of area this evening through Thu afternoon. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Stripling. National Hurricane Center.