000 AGXX40 KNHC 141942 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 242 PM EST Tue Nov 14 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... Strong high pres ridges SW from Ohio to the Rio Grande Valley of Texas and NE Mexico with a reinforcing frontal boundary moving offshore of E coast and across N FL. Weak surface troughing from near Tampico Mexico to the NW Yucatan is being forced SW by the high pres ridge. Pres gradient to the lee of the trough is yielding fresh winds over the central Gulf and seas to 8 ft. Seas for most of the Gulf and into the Yucatan Channel are still initializing 0 to 1 ft above WW3 guidance. Sfc trough will continue to the SW and take up residence as broad troughing aligned from WNW to ESE over the SW Gulf next couple of days, then weaken. Pressure gradient over the Gulf will continue to gradually relax tonight and Wed, with moderate to fresh NNE to NE flow setting up E of 86W on Wed evening, and light to locally moderate E-SE return flow W of 86W ahead of next frontal system moving into Plains. Winds will veer to the S across the far NW waters on Fri night ahead of a fast moving cold front pushing off the Texas coast Sat morning. This cold front will reach from Tampa Bay to Veracruz Sun morning, followed by strong post-frontal N to NE winds. GFS guidance now suggests gales could affect both the Tampico and Veracruz coasts of mexico. The Canadian model now suggests brief gales along the coast of Mexico near Veracruz as well. ECMWF remains an outlier from the other models in keeping the front much weaker and more progressive from W to E. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... A broad low pressure trough extends NE from the SW Caribbean to near the Windward Passage and onward to the vicinity of Bermuda. A low pressure center has emerged off the coast of NW Colombia. This low is anchoring the SW side of the trough. Deep convection continues to be concentrated over the Caribbean in the vicinity of the low W of 75W. Moderate to fresh trades prevail E of the trough with moderate N to NE winds over the Caribbean W of the trough, except off the coast of Colombia, where winds are fresh to locally strong. Sea heights are running up 6-8 ft there per buoy data. Troughing over the Caribbean is expected to become more elongated and stretch from SW to NE during the next few days. Embedded low pressure will drift slowly NE within the rough during this time frame. Active weather will continue across Gulf of Honduras and into adjacent land areas today in convergent NE flow, while SE low level flow will focus active weather across Jamaica and eastern Cuba. This area will shift slightly to the E over Hispaniola through Thu as the trough realigns. A fetch of strong SW winds will set up along the coast of Colombia on the SE side of the trough Wed through Fri. This unusual wind flow pattern pattern is expected to begin to break down Fri as the low and trough weaken. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... A weak and ill defined cold front has pushed SE along the FL coast during the past 18 hrs to near Cape Canaveral. Surface trough is consolidating from E Cuba to the Turks and Caicos Islands to Bermuda. Models remain in agreement in maintaining this elongated trough from E Cuba to the central Atlc during the next few days. Model solutions continue to vary regarding the specific placement of lows and meso lows which ripple NE along the trough. Model guidance has come into good consensus in developing main low near 28.5N63W Wed morning then moving it NE with gales developing within the SE semicircle by 00Z Thu as the low crosses 30N. Blending of wind fields tends to average out wind fields so maintained forecast persistence in this area. Forecast continues to discount any significant deepening of secondary lows to the SW of this main cyclone. Fresh to locally strong NE flow will spread across area behind trough Wed through Thu and cause seas to build to between 6 and 9 ft all the way to Bahamas. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sun into Sun night. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster McElroy. National Hurricane Center.