000 AGXX40 KNHC 140829 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 329 AM EST Tue Nov 14 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... Strong high pres persists across the Ohio Valley this morning extending SSW into Texas and NE Mexico with a reinforcing frontal boundary moving offshore of E coast and across N FL. Remnants of low-mid level vort and associated sfc trough across the N central Gulf yda being forced SW by this high pres and shifting across the W central Gulf attm. Pres grad behind this trough yielding strong NE to ENE winds across much of NE half of Gulf per 02-03Z ASCAT passes and NE winds around 20 kt across W Straits and across the Yucatan Channel. Seas 7-9 ft across large swath of N central and NE Gulf and 5-8 ft across W Straits and into Yucatan Channel. This above WW3 guidance. Sfc trough to shift SW and take up residence as broad gradually troughing across SW Gulf in WNW to ESE alignment next several days. Pressure gradient will gradually relax today through Wed, with moderate to fresh NNE to NE flow setting up E of 86W on Wed evening, and light to locally moderate E-SE return flow W of 86W ahead of next frontal system moving into Plains. Winds will clock to the S across the far NW waters on Fri night ahead of a fast moving cold front pushing off the Texas coast Sat morning. This cold front will reach from Tampa Bay to Veracruz late Sat night, followed by a strong post-frontal northerly winds, with GFS suggesting brief gales along coast near Veracruz. Global models in reasonable agreement with ECMWF outlier on front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... Elongated low pressure continues across the W Caribbean W of 80W to the Gulf of Honduras. New low has emerged off of coastal Colombia and becoming anchor of SE portion of troughing, where very active weather continues W of 75W. Fresh NE flow was depicted by 02-03Z Ascat pass across NW Carib and Yucatan Channel where seas are likely 5-8 ft. Moderate to fresh trades prevail E of 74W with 02Z ASCAT passes depicting solid zone of 20 kt S of 14N across the ABC's to NE Colombia. Seas have likely picked up 6-8 ft there and 6-7 ft farther N to near 17N per buoy and altimeter data. Elongated troughing expected to shift slowly W while trough itself rotates to more N to S alignment then NE to SW Wed through Thu. Active weather will continue across Gulf of Honduras and into adjacent land areas today in NE flow, while SE llvl flow will focus active weather across Jamaica and Ern Cuba, and gradually shift E into Hispaniola through Wed and trough realigns. Winds to back more NNE across NW portions Tue night into Wed and diminish very slightly while SSW winds fresh across SW portions along coastal Colombia with SW fetch gradually extending NE towards S coast of Hispaniola through Thu. Winds to reach 20-25 kt and seas 6-8 ft Wed through Thu there while associated llvl moisture streams NNE across Hispaniola and Puerto Rico as trough extends well NE into central Atlc. This unusual pattern expected to begin to break down Fri. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... A weak and ill defined cold front has shifted SE off the SE U.S. coast and SW into N FL past 18 hrs as strong high pres resides over Ohio Valley. Old frontal zone across the Atlc waters past several days has drifted NW and now analyzed as sfc trough from N central Bahamas NE into W Atlc. Sfc flow has backed W of these boundaries to NNE at near 20 kt with seas 6-8 ft, and to 6 ft along the coasts all the way to Ft Pierce and 41114. Broad troughing now developing E of sfc trough ahead of upper trough moving off E coast and into W Atlc. Models coming into somewhat better agreement on developing elongated trough to become strung out from E Cuba to central Atlc next few days, but still with differing placement of lows and meso lows to ride NE along trough. GFS and ECMWF reasonably close in developing main low developing invof 28.5N63W Wed morning and moving NE with gales developing across E semicircle by 00Z thu as it crosses 30N. Blending of wind fields tends to average out wind fields and will have to rebuild in gales into HSF for this package beginning 00Z Thu and exiting the area around 18Z Thu as low merges with frontal zone and sweeps E across 50W. At present am discounting any significant deepening of secondary lows to the SW of this main cyclone. Fresh to locally strong NE flow to spread across area behind trough Wed through Thu and build seas 6-9 ft all the way to Bahamas. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Stripling. National Hurricane Center.