000 AGXX40 KNHC 131804 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1159 AM EST Mon Nov 13 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... A weak NW to SE orientated trough will develop intermittently across the extreme SW gulf waters through Fri, with moderate to locally fresh NW flow, and 3 to 5 ft seas, developing to the SW of the trough, except for a brief strong NW pulse forecast near 19.5N96W late this afternoon into early this evening, with seas building briefly to 6 ft. Broad high pressure is supporting fresh northerly flow across the remainder of the gulf waters, with small swaths of strong NE flow expected across the E- Central waters tonight. The pressure gradient will relax on Tue night into Wed, with moderate NE-E flow setting up E of 86W on Wed evening, and light to locally moderate E-SE return flow W of 86W. Winds will clock to the S across the far NW waters on Fri night ahead of a fast moving cold front pushing off the Texas coast around sunrise on Sat. This cold front will reach from Tampa Bay to Veracruz late Sat night, followed by a strong post- frontal northerly breeze. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... Broad low pressure continues across the W Caribbean and is analyzed as a surface trough aligned N to S along 80W, with a 1007 mb surface low on the NW coast of Colombia at 10N76W. Considerable convection currently enhanced across the NW Caribbean, will gradually decrease over the next few days, but Cuba should expect training clusters along their S-Central coast through at least tonight. The surface low along the NW coast of Colombia will drift W along the monsoon trough today, which extends E to W along 10N. The low will begin to lift N late tonight as the surface trough currently along 80W shifts E, and extends N to S from the Windward Passage to Panama by late Tue. This low will continue to track N-NE along the trough through the end of the week, with guidance suggesting the possibility of another surface low, or lows, developing along the trough this week. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds will continue across the NW Caribbean through sunrise Wed before diminishing to a moderate N breeze, that will persist through Thu evening before increasing to fresh again. Moderate to locally fresh E-SE flow is expected E of the 75W through early Tue night, except becoming light southerly flow across the N-Central waters near the eastward shifting trough during mid week, while fresh southerly winds develop S of 13N within about 180 nm E of the low, or lows. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... A couple of cold fronts are sweeping SE across the SE CONUS. An initial weak cold front will move move SE across the waters N of the Bahamas this afternoon followed by fresh NE winds. This initial front will be reinforced by a stronger, secondary cold front, on Tue night, with swaths of strong N-NE winds, and 7 to 9 ft seas, forecast N of the Bahamas by Tue evening. This secondary front will merge with the first front along a position from Bermuda to Central Florida around sunrise on Fri, with the merged front stalling along 27N to the W of 65W on Fri night. A surface low, or lows, are likely to develop and race NE along a trough that will build NE from the Windward Passage to the cold front near 31N65W. Strong southerly flow will develop N of 27N E of the front between 65W and 55W on Tue night, and shift E as the cold frontal segment continues e reaching from 31N55W to 25N65W on Thu. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Nelson. National Hurricane Center.