000 AGXX40 KNHC 130858 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 358 AM EST Mon Nov 13 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... Strong ridge along E coast of US extending SW into Gulf has shifted NE into NW Atlc with pres gradient relaxing across the basin. Remnants of old front still lingering across S Flo and into far SE Gulf while sfc trough-convergence line persists from offshore of mouth of MS to S central portions. Fresh to strong ENE winds prevail across much of SE Gulf where seas are 5-7 ft, possibly to 8 ft near entrance to Yucatan Channel. Moderate to fresh NNE wind seen near N portion of trough where seas are also 5-7 ft. Elsewhere seas 4-5 ft in NE swell across SW quarter of basin. A NW to SE orientated trough will meander across the SW gulf waters through Thu, with moderate to locally fresh NW flow, and 3 to 5 ft seas, continuing to the SW of the trough, except a brief strong NW pulse is forecast near 19.5N96W during Mon afternoon when seas building briefly to 7 ft. Broad N to S orientated trough currently extending from mouth of MS will continue drifting W and wash out by tonight. Fresh to locally strong, NE flow will continue across the gulf waters N central and NE waters behind it, with the pressure gradient forecast to gradually relax on Tue and Wed. Moderate NE-E flow will set up E of 90W by late Wed. Light to moderate NE flow NW portions will gradually clock to the SE on Tue through Thu, with S winds late in the week ahead of a cold front late Fri night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... Deep layered low across W Carib and filled and shifted W to along E coast of central America, with NE llvl flow transporting active cnvtn into Carib coasts of Yucatan S to gulf of Honduras region. Widespread cnvtn continues across the NW Caribbean across E side of collapsed low with upper anticyclone aloft continuing to provide favorable environment. Seas continue 5-7 ft in Yucatan Channel under fresh NE winds, while moderate to fresh trades have returned to rest of basin E of 75W with seas 4-6 ft. Thermal low across NW Colombia will shift NW over water and replace low of recent day with weak troughing developing NNW towards Jamaica. Low and trough that will meander W through early Tue, then shift E, and extend NE from the Windward Passage to Panama with broad and weak low drifting slowly NE through the end of the week. Models suggest fresh to strong SSW winds developing from Panama to Hispaniola during this time to produce anomalous wind patter. Moderate to locally fresh N-NE winds are expected across NW Carib through early Wed, then moderate N flow expected W of the trough after Wed. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... Stationary front transitioning to shear line from 31N62W to 27N74W to near Palm Beach with strong NE-E winds and seas 9 to 11 ft observed within 120 nm N of boundary. Fresh ENE winds prevail elsewhere on both sides of boundary W of 70W and through the Bahamas. 0534Z Cryosat pass showed seas to 10.5 ft just S of boundary along 26N across Bahamas coastal waters with 8-9 ft seas suggested to extend S and SE to 22.5N and to 41046. Winds will diminish to 20 kt or less, and seas will subside to less than 8 ft by afternoon as broad troughing develops from E Cuba NE across these waters, generally S of where boundary currently resides. Reinforcing high pressure in the wake of a secondary cold front will drive the N-NE winds back up to 20 kt across the NW waters N of the Bahamas tonight through Tue night, spreading S across the waters W of a line from Bermuda to Central Cuba, while seas build to 8 ft N of the Bahamas. Elongated troughing will develop NE to SW from E Cuba to S of Bermuda Tue just SE of this ill defined frontal boundary and shift E through Thu. Models depict one of two surface lows developing within trough and racing NE along it, with the lead low deepening rapidly as it reaches 30N Wed, and NE of the area. Strong southerly flow will develop N of 25N E of the trough and low 65W and 55W on Wed. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Stripling. National Hurricane Center.