000 AGXX40 KNHC 121850 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1230 PM EST Sun Nov 12 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... A NW to SE orientated trough will meander across the SW gulf waters through Thu, with moderate to locally fresh NW flow, and 3 to 5 ft seas, continuing to the SW of the trough, except a brief strong NW pulse is forecast near 19.5N96W during Mon afternoon when seas building briefly to 7 ft. A broad N to S orientated trough currently across the N-Central gulf will continue W and fill by this evening. Fresh, to locally strong, NE flow will continue across the gulf waters E of 87W through Mon evening, with the pressure gradient forecast to gradually relax on Tue and Wed, with moderate NE-E flow setting up E of 90W by late Wed. Moderate to locally fresh NE flow is forecast W of 87W through Mon evening, then light to moderate NE flow will gradually clock to the SE on Tue through Thu, with S winds late in the week ahead of a cold front late Fri night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... The southern end of the N-Atlc TUTT is analyzed as a broad trough along 83W with evidence of a 1007 mb surface low along the trough at 11.5N83W. Considerable convection currently enhanced across the NW Caribbean will gradually decrease over the next few days. Fresh NE winds are expected across, and just downstream of the Yucatan Channel through sunrise on Mon. The low is forecast dissipate while a thermal low along the NW coast of Colombia will drift W along the trough that will shift SW tonight, and meander NW along the Caribbean coast of Central America to the Gulf of Honduras through early Tue. The trough will then shift E, and extend N to S from the Windward Passage to Panama with the low, or lows, shifting N along the trough through the end of the week. Fresh to locally strong NE winds will continue across the NW Caribbean through tonight, with moderate to locally fresh N-NE winds then forecast through early Wed. Moderate N flow expected W of the trough after Wed, while moderate to locally fresh E-SE flow is expected E of the 75W through early Tue, becoming light southerly flow across the N- Central waters near the trough during mid week, while fresh southerly winds develop S of 13N within 180 nm E of the low, or lows. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... A stationary front extending from 31N63W to 27N80W will soon lose identity. Strong NE-E winds, with seas to 11 ft, are observed across the waters N of 26N and E of the southern Bahamas. These winds will diminish to 20 kt or less, and the seas will subside to less than 8 ft by early Mon. Reinforcing high pressure in the wake of a secondary cold front, will drive the N-NE winds back up to 20 kt N of the Bahamas on Mon afternoon, with these fresh winds spreading S across the waters W of a line from Bermuda to Central Cuba on Tue night, with seas building to 8 ft N of the Bahamas on Tue night. This secondary front will reach from 31N66W to E Cuba on Tue, from 31N59W to the Windward passage on Wed, and stall from 28N55W to Haiti late Thu. A surface low, or lows, may develop and race NE along the front. Strong southerly flow will develop N of 27N E of the front between 65W and 55W on Wed. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Nelson. National Hurricane Center.