000 AGXX40 KNHC 110831 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 331 AM EST Sat Nov 11 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... Frontal boundary across the SE gulf has washed out and is ill defined attm, with remnants across the nrn Straits of Fl extending WSW to offshore of NE coast of Yucatan. Strong high pres building S across the ern US is pushing a secondary boundary into the SW N Atlc waters and building across the Gulf. A low to mid lvl wave across the central Gulf extending NNE into NE Gulf has induced a sfc trough in across NE portions and building high to the N of this feature producing tightening pres gradient and freshening NE to E winds Seas have built 5-6 ft there overnight and area 5-7 ft across SE portions where longer fetch is present, possibly higher than 8 ft where wind waves running against Fl current. Moderate NE winds around 15 kt with areas of 15-20 kt prevail elsewhere to the W, while a llvl trough continues just offshore of the Mexican coast with coastal obs suggesting light to moderate NW to W winds to the W of trough. The sfc trough across the NE Gulf will shift slowly W and weaken through Mon, with resultant pres gradient from strong continental high will maintain strong NE winds E portions through Mon, while winds begin to back across entire basin Mon and Tue with strong winds persisting. This to maintain seas 5-7 ft with areas around 8 ft across E portions through Tue. Return flow to set up across TX coastal waters Tue in advance of next frontal system approaching region. Models in reasonable agreement. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... Deep layered cyclonic circulation continues to drift slowly W across the W Central Caribbean with associated surface low near 14N79.5W and estimated at 1007 mb. Abundant moisture wrapping cyclonically around low has been producing deep intermittent cnvtn across Jamaica, Hispaniola, and eastern Cuba past 12 hours with a new convergent line moving across VI and into Puerto Rico in recent hours. Overnight scat pass showed fresh ESE winds across N central portions aiding in forcing cnvtn across Jamaica area and producing 6-8 ft seas. Drier more stable air and moderate Ely trades seen across the Tropical N Atlc waters moving into E Carib behind convergent band along 65W attm. The low will shift slowly WSW next 24 hours and then weaken to a NW to SE aligned trough and gradually be absorbed into EPAC monsoon trough through Tue. Lingering troughing extending from low NE into Atlc will help to maintain tight pres gradient across NW Carib and lee of Cuba with NE to ENE winds of 20-25 kt and seas 5-8 ft will develop today and continue through Sun before winds begin to back and diminish slightly. Fresh E trades to build into E half of basin during this time to bring return to more typical tradewind regime there through Mon before winds veer SE and deep layered troughing develops from Bermuda to E coast of Cuba. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... Frontal boundary has become ill defined from 30N70W to NW Bahamas with secondary boundary now pushing into NW waters, from 31N71W to Cape Canaveral area. Strong to near gale force NE winds behind this second front really pumping up seas with recent altimeter pass showing 12-15 ft seas just N of area waters along 75W. This is more in line with EC model and will adjust more towards this with next package. Current coastal buoys showing 5-6 ft seas along the central and NE Fl coast while 41002 is now 13 ft. Strong continental high across Great Lakes is building S and into the region behind both of these boundaries and will maintain strong winds N of boundaries as well as NW of broad llvl troughing along about 70W to Hispaniola through Sun night. Seas to build 9-14 ft across waters N through NE of N half of Bahamas during this time and batter the local coastlines. Strong NE to E winds through the Bahamas will also build unusually high seas to 5-7 ft across the Banks and in Providence Channel. Tropical moisture circulating around Carib deep layered cyclone is lifting NNW across SE half of Bahamas and being sheared NE ahead of upper trough supporting front. Very strong upper trough to sweep into W Atlc late Mon and Tue and reinforce llvl troughing from Hispaniola to Bermuda region Tue into Wed with very active weather likely ahead of trough and N of Hispaniola where tropical moisture will persist. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Stripling. National Hurricane Center.