000 AGXX40 KNHC 101713 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1213 PM EST Fri Nov 10 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from Tampa Bay to a weakening 1014 mb surface low at 24N96W, then continues stationary to the Bay of Campeche. Strong northerly winds, with 4 to 7 ft seas, are observed W of the low and southern stationary front. The low and fronts will weaken to a NW to SE orientated trough that will meander across the SW gulf through early next week, with moderate to locally fresh NW flow continuing to the SW of the trough. Continental high pressure will strengthen N of the area, resulting in strong NE flow developing across the E gulf waters this evening, and continuing through Mon morning. The pressure gradient is expected to relax on Tue, with fresh NE flow continuing only across the SE waters, with moderate SE return setting across the western gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... Broad deep layered cyclonic circulation persists across the W Caribbean with the associated surface low analyzed at 15N76W and estimated at 1008 mb. Locally strong convection is currently enhanced E of the low between 70W and 76W. The low is forecast to drift SW and meander across the the SW Caribbean along a low level trough that will extend from the NW coast of Colombia to the Gulf of Honduras through the weekend. As the low shifts SW expect the associated convection to shift W across the the waters lee of E Cuba including Jamaica. Fresh northerly winds currently across the NW Caribbean will become a strong NE breeze tonight, and continue through sunrise on Sun with fresh N-NE winds forecast then forecast from Sun through early Wed. Moderate E-SE flow is expected E of the 75W through the middle of next week. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... A cold front extending from 31N78W to 28N81W will continue E and become quasi-stationary from 31N66W to 27N80W on Sat. Strong to near gale force N-NE winds, with seas building to 13 ft, will spread S across the waters N of the Bahamas through tonight, and reach the northern Bahama Channel on Sat afternoon, and continue through Sun morning before the pressure gradient relaxes. A second cold front will enter the NW waters on Mon, accompanied by strong N winds, merge with remnants of the first front, with a single boundary extending from 31N63W to the Cay Sal Bank on Tue night. A broad trough extends NE from the Windward Passage to just S of Bermuda. Abundant debris moisture, originating in the Central Caribbean, continues to shift W-NW across Hispaniola and the SE Bahamas. The tight pressure gradient between this trough and the strengthening post-frontal high pressure will produce a band of strong E winds that will spread across the Central Bahamas and Old Bahama Channel tonight. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Nelson. National Hurricane Center.