000 AGXX40 KNHC 100854 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 354 AM EST Fri Nov 10 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from Tampa Bay WSW to near 24N90W then to weakening low pressure near 24.5N96W then continues SSE to W central Bay of Campeche. 03Z scat pass showed NE winds around 20 kt NE of low and front W of 93W, and NNW 20-25 kt W of low and front to 23.5N. Winds generally NE 15-20 kt N of front across rest of area. Altimeter and buoy data suggest seas 4-6 ft N of front E of 90w and 4-7 ft and likely building to 8 ft attm W of 90W, and 6-9 ft W of front across SW Gulf. Low forecast to weaken to trough and leave wave along front by 24 hrs while E portion moves SE to near Naples before becoming diffuse over the weekend and drifting N. Winds to freshen W of front along waters of Veracruz today and maintain seas 6-9 ft there before gradually diminishing late afternoon and tonight. Supporting mid level trough dragging across nrn Gulf attm forecast to induce llvl vort across central Gulf Sat with associated sfc tough invof 90W and combine with building sfc high pres across Ern seaboard and into SW N Atlc to quickly tighten pres gradient across NE gulf by Sat morning for strong NE winds to 25 kt and seas building to 8 ft then veering E and diminishing slightly through Sun while tight gradient then shift into SE Gulf and Straits, where seas will build to 6-8 ft through Sun night. Have followed previous forecast and GFS through this period but ECMWF showing persistent strong NE flow across most of NE and SE Gulf through Mon and 7-10 ft seas. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... Broad low to middle level cyclonic circulation persists across W Carib centered near 15N78W with sfc low analyzed a bit E of there at 76W. Deep tropical moisture continues to be pulled from Ern semicircle towards NW and will move across Jamaica today for potential for deep cnvtn. Models and altimeter data suggest ESE sfc wind surge associated with this moisture shifting WNW across N central Carib towards Jamaica where long fetch from E Carib is yielding seas 7-9 ft, while sct deep cnvtn continues. Freshening NNE winds prevail across the NW Carib to the W of the low where seas are building 4-6 ft. Low to shift W and weaken through the weekend with this moisture moving W to WSW into central America. Cold front across W Atlc will move SE and reach from just SE of Bermuda to NW Bahamas and across S FL and stall over the weekend, with associated pres gradient between high behind front and remnants of low that will shift into W Carib producing strong NE flow across NW Carib and lee of Cuba tonight through Sun night, with seas building 5-8 ft. Elsewhere moderate to fresh trades to prevail with seas 4-5 ft inside Carib and 5-7 ft across tropical N Atlc waters. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... A cold front extends from low pres near 32N78W to N central FL to the S of Daytona Beach, while inverted troughing persists from srn Bahamas NE to near 30N66W. Abundant moisture associated with Carib low continues to shift WNW across Hispaniola and through all but NW Bahamas attm. Front is expected to move SE and reach from 31N76W to Palm Beach by 00Z Sat and then stall from Fl Keys and nrn Straits to just SE of Bermuda through Sun night. Strong high pres and coldest air of season behind front to produce strong NE then ENE winds behind front through early Sun before slowly diminishing behind dissipating front. Lingering troffing across N Carib associated with remnants of Carib low to produce secondary zone of tight pres gradient and strong E to ENE winds S of front to Greater Antilles. Resultant seas to build 7-10 ft S of front and E of Bahamas, and 8-13 ft N of front. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Stripling. National Hurricane Center.