000 AGXX40 KNHC 271704 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 104 PM EDT Fri Oct 27 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... Buoy, platform, and scatterometer data indicate moderate to fresh southerly winds in the NW Gulf ahead of a strong cold front. The front has reached the Texas coast and fresh to strong northerly winds are pushing into the Texas coastal waters in its wake. Elsewhere, high pressure centered over the SE United States is maintaining gentle to moderate E to SE flow. The front will continue to propagate through the Gulf, reaching from the Florida Panhandle to Veracruz in the SW Gulf by Saturday afternoon. A combination of denser, cool and dry air behind the front funneling along the coast of Mexico, and a tight pressure gradient between high pressure N of the front and lower pressure over the NW Caribbean will allow winds to reach gale force off the Mexican coast from Tamaulipas to Veracruz beginning this evening, ending by Saturday evening E of Tampico, and ending by Sunday morning E of Veracruz. The other main forecast challenge will be the track and intensity of developing low pressure in the NW Caribbean. The low is expected to move from NE of the coast of Honduras, across western Cuba and through the eastern Straits of Florida through late Sunday, with the front sweeping the SE Gulf in the wake of the low pressure. Strong northerly winds, rough seas and large areas of showers and thunderstorms will accompany the low pressure and front over the eastern Gulf starting Saturday and persisting through late Sunday. Winds and seas will diminish into early next week as high pressure builds again over the northern Gulf in the wake of the front. Southeast return flow will increase over the western Gulf next week between the ridge to the N and NE, and lower pressure to the NW of the Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... A complex pattern is developing over the NW Caribbean as 1007 mb low pressure near 16.5N 83.5W continues to become better organized off the coast of Cabo Gracias a Dios in eastern Honduras. The low pressure has formed at the end of a stalled frontal boundary reaching from the Windward Passage which is in the process of dissipating. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are active within 300 nm of the low pressure. Earlier scatterometer data indicated strong NE winds off the southern coast of central Cuba, flowing into the low pressure. The front will dissipate by this evening into a remnant trough while drifting to the NW. The low pressure has the potential to become a tropical cyclone during the next couple of days as it moves into western Cuba through late Saturday. Strong winds, building seas and continued thunderstorms are expected through Saturday night, with fresh northerly flow persisting over the Yucatan Channel and northwest Caribbean through late Sunday associated with another cold front moving into the area in the wake of the low pressure. Elsewhere moderate to fresh trade winds will diminish by Sunday as the low pressure moves north of the region and weakens the pressure gradient over the Caribbean. Trades will increase by to moderate to fresh by mid week. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... A cold front extending from just E of Bermuda to near the Windward Passage will weaken later today. The southern portion of the front stalled this morning and has already started to lift NW through the Bahamas ahead of low pressure developing in the NW Caribbean and approaching the region through western Cuba. Southerly winds will increase over the northwest Bahamas, Cay Sal area and eastern Straits of Florida through Saturday ahead of the low pressure, and ahead of a cold front approaching the region from the Gulf of Mexico. The front will emerge into the Atlantic off the NE coast of Florida by Saturday night. The front will reach from 30N75W to central Cuba by Sunday afternoon. While the low pressure has the potential to become a tropical cyclone over the next couple of days, it will interact with the front by Sunday and start to weaken, yielding to another area of non-tropical low pressure forming along the frontal boundary over the warm Gulf Stream off NE Florida Sunday and rapidly lifting north of the area. The main impact will the potential for gale force winds along the leading edge of the front N of 27N late Sunday with seas of 8 to 10 ft. The main upper support of the front will lift north of the region Sunday night, and winds and seas will subside through early Monday, as the trailing end of the front stalls from 30N55W through the central Bahamas by mid week. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... Gale Warning tonight into Sat. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... Gale Warning tonight into Sat night. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sun. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Lewitsky. National Hurricane Center.