000 AGXX40 KNHC 270828 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 428 AM EDT Fri Oct 27 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... Buoy, platform, and scatterometer data indicate southerly winds are increasing over the northwest Gulf ahead of a strong cold front currently moving through the Southern Plains. High pressure centered over the southeastern United States is maintaining light to gentle breezes over the northeast Gulf, but moderate to fresh east winds across the Straits of Florida, southeast Gulf, and south central Gulf near the Yucatan Channel. The front will move off the Texas coast this afternoon, then reach from the Florida Panhandle to Veracruz in the southwest Gulf by Saturday afternoon. A combination of denser, cool and dry air behind the front funneling along the coast of Mexico, and a tight pressure gradient between high pressure north of the front and lower pressure over the northwest Caribbean will allow winds to reach gale force off the Mexican coast from Tampico to Veracruz late Friday night/early Saturday morning through late Saturday. The other main forecast issue will be the track and intensity of developing low pressure in the northwest Caribbean. The low is expected to move from the coast of eastern Honduras, across western Cuba and through the eastern Straits of Florida through late Sunday, with the front sweeping the southeast Gulf in the wake of the low pressure. Strong northerly winds, rough seas and large areas of showers and thunderstorms will accompany the low pressure and front over the eastern Gulf starting Saturday and persisting through late Sunday. Winds and seas will diminish into early next week as high pressure builds again over the northern Gulf in the wake of the front. Southeast return flow will increase over the western Gulf Monday into Tuesday of next week between the ridge to the north and northeast, and lower pressure to the northwest of the Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... A complex pattern is developing over the northwest Caribbean as 1007 mb low pressure continues to become better organized off the coast of Cabo Gracias a Dios in eastern Honduras. The low pressure is forming at the end of a stalled frontal boundary reaching from the Windward Passage. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are active within 150 nm to the Northwest of the low pressure. Recent scatterometer data indicated strong NE winds off the southern coast of central Cuba, flowing into the low pressure. The front will weaken as it drifts northward today. There is a medium chance the low pressure will develop into a tropical cyclone over the next couple of days as it moves into western Cuba through late Saturday. Strong winds, building seas and continued thunderstorms are expected through Saturday night, with fresh northerly flow persisting over the Yucatan Channel and northwest Caribbean through late Sunday associated with another cold front moving into the area in the wake of the low pressure. Elsewhere moderate to fresh trade winds will diminish by Sunday as the low pressure moves north of the region and weakens the pressure gradient over the Caribbean. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... A cold front extending from Bermuda to the Windward Passage will weaken later today. The southern portion will stall briefly and lift northward again though the Bahamas ahead of low pressure developing in the northwest Caribbean and approaching the region through western Cuba. Southerly winds will increase over the northwest Bahamas, Cay Sal area and eastern Straits of Florida through Saturday ahead of the low pressure, and ahead of a cold front approaching the region from the west. The front will emerge into the Atlantic off the northeast coast of Florida by Saturday night. The front will reach from 30N75W to central Cuba by Sunday afternoon. While the low pressure may briefly become a tropical cyclone over the next couple of days, it will interact with the front by Sunday and start to weaken, yielding to another area of low pressure forming along the frontal boundary over the warm Gulf Stream off northeast Florida Sunday and rapidly lifting north of the area. The main impact will the potential for gale force winds along the leading edge of the front north of 27N late Sunday with seas of 8 to 10 ft. The main upper support of the front will lift north of the region Sunday night, and winds and seas will subside through early Monday, as the trailing end of the front stalls from 30N55W through the central Bahamas by mid week. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... Gale Warning tonight into Sat. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... Gale Warning Sat into Sat night. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sun. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Christensen. National Hurricane Center.