000 AGXX40 KNHC 261806 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 206 PM EDT Thu Oct 26 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... A ridge dominates the gulf region. Recent scatterometer data and surface observations indicate gentle to moderate northerly winds across much of the gulf waters, with the exception of light and variable winds over the NW gulf. The most recent altimeter pass is still showing seas up to 10 ft across the SW gulf. Winds will veer to the NE, then E across the eastern gulf during the remainder of the day, with mainly southerly winds across the west-central and NW gulf. Seas will continue to subside today over the SW gulf. Fresh return flow will begin over the NW Gulf by early Fri, ahead of another cold front moving into the NW Gulf by early Friday afternoon. Fresh to strong winds and building seas will follow the front, forecast to reach from the western Florida Panhandle to the central Bay of Campeche by early Saturday afternoon. Winds are forecast to reach minimal gale force along the coast of Mexico, with building seas of 12 to 14 ft over the SW Gulf. Currently, the SREF probabilities of gale force winds have increased to 45 percent across the west-central gulf and to 65 percent across the SW gulf, while the GEFS probabilities reach 90 to 100 percent of 30 kt winds over the same area. The forecast calls for gale conditions expected across the above mentioned zones on Saturday, persisting through Sat night across the SW gulf. Winds and seas will start to diminish by late Saturday night as high pressure behind the front builds over the area. The front will move SE of the region Sun, interacting with a low pressure area moving ahead of the front from the NW Caribbean. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... The broad area of low pressure located over the western Caribbean Sea and Central America has moved northward since yesterday. It continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. A cluster of moderate to strong convection is noted within about 90 nm on the NE quadrant of the low center while scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen elsewhere from 10N to 17N between 79W and 83W. Close proximity to land is likely to limit development of this system during the next 24 hours. However, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for the system to become more organized Friday and Saturday as it moves slowly northward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Strong upper-level winds associated with an approaching cold front will make conditions less favorable by Sunday. A cold front extending from Camaguey, Cuba to the coast of Honduras near 16N85W will drift SE and reach from eastern Cuba to near Cabo Gracias a Dios, Nicaragua later today where it will stall and gradually dissipate on Fri. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and seas of 8 to 9 ft follow the front. A recent ASCAT pass confirmed the presence of these wind speeds. Fresh northerly winds are also noted in the Yucatan Channel. A surface trough along 62W/63W will move slowly W through across the eastern Caribbean on Fri, reaching the central Caribbean late on Sat or early Sun. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... A cold front extends from 31N71W across the central Bahamas and eastern Cuba into the Caribbean Sea. The front will reach from 31N66W to eastern Cuba tonight, and will begin to weaken on Fri from 31N65W to eastern Cuba. Fresh to locally strong winds are still noted ahead and behind the front mainly N of 26N, with mainly gentle to moderate winds prevailing elsewhere. By Fri night, gentle to moderate easterly winds will dominate most of the area with seas of 4-6 ft E of the Bahamas, except 5-7 ft across the NE waters. Looking ahead, another cold front will move off the coast of Florida by early Sun, possibly interacting with the broad area of low pressure currently located over the Caribbean Sea. This could bring an increase in winds and seas across the SW N Atlantic Sat night into Sunday. Gale conditions are possible ahead of the front during this time period. Winds and seas will gradually diminish across the region from west to east begining Sun night. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... Gale Warning Fri night into Sat. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... Gale Warning Sat. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sat. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sun into Sun night. .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sun night. .AMZ117...BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAY SAL BANK... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sun. .AMZ119...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N E OF BAHAMAS TO 70W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sun. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.