000 AGXX40 KNHC 211808 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 208 PM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... Moderate to fresh SE winds over Gulf waters will become light SE to S to the east of a prefrontal trough that will progress eastward across the Gulf on Sun just ahead of a cold front arriving on the Texas coast Sun evening. Winds on the west side of the prefrontal trough will be light to moderate from the north. The front is expected to move off the Texas coast Sun evening and reach from near Apalachicola Florida to the NW corner of the Yucatan Peninsula by Monday afternoon, then from Sarasota Florida to NW Cuba by Tuesday afternoon. Strong high pressure will build southeastward across the area in the wake of the front could produce gale force winds over the SW Gulf near Veracruz on Mon and Mon night. Have gone slightly above the GFS solution which calls for winds barely to gale threshold around 18Z on Mon, as a tropical wave approaching from the western Caribbean should increase the pressure gradient in the neighborhood of the front as it follows the Sierra Madre Oriental southward through the SW Gulf. Fresh to strong winds over the Gulf should subside by Thu morning as surface high pres builds over the NW Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... The tropical wave currently passing south of Cuba appears to be the more vigorous of the 2 tropical waves currently over the Caribbean. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection associated with this wave covers the western Caribbean S of Cuba between 10N and 20N. The tropical wave currently passing from the far W Caribbean into the Yucatan Peninsula has limited convection associated with it in the vicinity of Belize. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will accompany the stronger wave is it moves west. Fresh to locally strong trades following in the wake of the stronger wave will cover the central Caribbean until around midday on Monday, when an approaching cold front weakens the high to the north of the Caribbean. The same cold front will move into the NW Caribbean on Wednesday. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... Strong high pres building over the W Atlc will maintain fresh to locally strong E to SE winds, especially S of 22N through Monday. A cold front is forecast to move off the SE Coast after sunset on Tuesday night. Strong S winds and seas building to 8 ft can be expected N of 30N on Mon night and Tue morning. The cold front will move E from Florida on Wednesday and produce fresh to locally strong NW winds over the waters W of 77W. The front could be accompanied by showers and thunderstorms capable of producing strong gusty winds and rough seas. The front will weaken as it heads SE Thu and Thu night. High pressure will slide ENE from The Gulf of mexico on Fri morning to near 30N76W on Fri morning and support light to moderate winds over the region. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Mon into Tue. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster McElroy. National Hurricane Center.