000 AGXX40 KNHC 160822 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 422 AM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... A broad trough along 93W will be absorbed today by a cold front currently over the Tx coastal waters that will race SE reaching a position from the Fl Big Bend to 23N93W to the Bay of Campeche at sunset, and gradually lose identity across the SE waters late Tue through Wed. Strong to near gale force northerly winds in the wake of the front early this morning will increase to minimal gale force near 23N97W during mid day, and develop within 90 nm of the Mexican coast between 94W and 97W this afternoon, with these gale conditions continuing across the SW waters into Tue evening, with seas building to a max of 15 ft near 19N95W. Strong post-gale NW flow will then continue through Wed evening. A fresh to locally strong E breeze is expected across the northern Gulf waters on Thu through Fri night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... A tropical wave currently along 72W will move W through the Central Caribbean through Tue, through the Western Caribbean during mid week, and through the NW Caribbean late in the week, with fresh trades forecast E of the wave axis through at least Wed morning. A second tropical wave will pass through the tropical waters E of the Lesser Antilles today accompanied by SCT TS. A third wave wave will enter the tropical waters on Tue night accompanied by fresh to locally strong E trades, and seas of 7-11 ft, with these conditions spreading W across the Caribbean E of 70W by sunrise on Thu, and extending across the Central Caribbean beginning on Fri, and then persisting through the upcoming weekend. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... A broad surface trough is between 65W and 70W with a weak 1012 mb surface low currently analyzed along the trough at 22N70W. There is a chance this ill-defined low has a good possibility of becoming a tropical cyclone as it moves N, and later NE along the surface trough reaching near 30N68W late tonight, and passing N of 31N on Tue morning. Strong SE flow, and SCT TS, will spread NW across the ATLC waters to the E of the trough through Tue. A cold front will enter the NW discussion waters tonight, and race E merging with the previously described trough along a position from 31N65W to the Central Bahamas on Wed, then stall and drift W on Thu and Fri, with the possibility of a few weak surface lows developing along the stalled front. Fresh to locally strong NE winds are forecast to develop W of the cold front tonight, and spread S across the waters N of 28N W of 77W on Tue night, with the pressure gradient relaxing on Wed and Thu, but tightening again beginning late Fri. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... Gale Warning today. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... Gale Warning today into Tue night. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Nelson. National Hurricane Center.