000 AGXX40 KNHC 151905 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 305 PM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO... A N-S surface trough along 93W will continue westward today with a weak, about 1013 mb, surface low developing briefly along the trough near 24N93W. A cold front currently over SE TX, is forecast to reach along the TX coast this evening. The front will continue to race SE and overrun the trough to a position from the Fl Big Bend to 23N93W to the Bay of Campeche late Mon. Guidance now suggests the front will track farther S reaching from S FL to the Yucatan Peninsula on Tue. Fresh to locally strong N winds will develop in the wake of the front across the NW Gulf by Mon evening. Minimal gale force conditions are expected within 90 nm of the Mexican coast from Tampico to Veracruz Mon through Tue night. Seas will build to a maximum of 15 ft over the SW Gulf. Strong post-gale NW flow will then continue through Tue night until midday Wed before diminishing to a fresh E breeze across the northern Gulf waters on Wed night into Thu. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... A tropical wave currently along 68W continues to be accompanied by considerable convection well E of the wave across the far eastern Caribbean. The wave is forecast to move W through the Central Caribbean on Mon and Tue, and enter the Western Caribbean during mid week, with fresh trades setting up E of the wave axis through Wed morning. High pres building over the western Atlc will increase the pressure gradient and support fresh to strong SE trades across the SE Caribbean Wed night and Thu. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... A trough N of 23N along 66W, and a tropical wave S of 23N along 68W will both continue W reaching along 71W on Mon. A surface low near 20N66W has a low chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 2 days as it recurves NW reaching near 24N72W on Mon, then turning N along the surface trough reaching near 27N72W on Mon night. A cold front will enter the NW waters Mon night, reach from 31N63W to the Central Bahamas late Wed, and stall from 31N61W to the Central Bahamas on Wed night and Thu. If the low develops, it will then race N-NE along the trough on Tue night and Wed as the eastward moving trough reaches a position from 31N63W to 22N73W early Wed. Strong SE flow, and SCT TS, will spread NW across the ATLC waters to the E of the trough and tropical wave through Tue. A cold front will enter the NW discussion waters on Mon night, reach from 31N63W to the Central Bahamas late Wed, and stall from 31N61W to the Central Bahamas on Wed night and Thu, with another surface low possibly developing along the stalled front near 30N71W on Thu. Fresh to locally strong NE winds are forecast to develop W of the front on Mon night, and spread S across the waters N of 28N W of 77W on Tue night, with these conditions reaching the NW Bahamas on Wed night into Thu. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... Gale Warning Mon. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... Gale Warning Mon into Tue. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Tue into Tue night. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster McElroy. National Hurricane Center.