000 AGXX40 KNHC 081831 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 231 PM EDT Sun Oct 8 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Tropical cyclone Nate is rapidly weakening as it moves farther inland. This system is still producing fresh to strong S-SW winds across the north-central and NE Gulf, with seas of 11-13 ft over the NE Gulf based on a recent altimeter pass and buoy observations. By tonight expect winds to diminish below 20 kt and seas to decrease to less than 8 ft. A ridge will build across the Gulf waters in the wake of Nate for the early part of this week with more tranquil marine conditions anticipated. Marine guidance indicates that a cold front will move into the NW Gulf on Tuesday, and extend from SE Louisiana to near Brownsville Texas by Tuesday night. High pressure building behind the front across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains is expected to produce fresh to strong winds along the Mexico coast west of 95W, including the Veracruz area on Wednesday. These winds are forecast to persist over the SW Gulf on Tursday. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... The most recent scatterometer data show moderate to locally fresh trade winds across the south-central Caribbean and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 3-4 ft range, with the exception of 4-5 ft over the NW Caribbean, and 6-8 ft in the Yucatan Channel based on the most recent altimeter pass. As a pair of troughs move across the SW N Atlantic through at least the next 48-72 hours, the basin will remain under a weak pressure gradient, with mainly gentle to moderate winds and seas generally under 4 ft. A tropical wave along 55W will reach the Lesser Antilles by Monday morning, then move into the eastern Caribbean later on Monday and Tuesday. The northern extension of this wave will separate and move WNW or NW across the Atlantic and NE of the Leeward Islands on Monday. More details below. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... A ridge dominates the N waters while a trough is along 71W S of 27N. Experimental GOES-16 shows a well defined swirl of low clouds along the trough axis near 24N71W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted E of the trough covering the waters from 20N-23N between 65W-68W. Winds and seas could be higher near the tstms. The most recent scatterometer pass showed moderate to fresh winds in association with this trough. This feature is forecast to move across the Bahamas the rest of today and tonight reaching near 76W/77W by Monday morning. Mainly fresh E-SE winds and building seas to 8 ft E of the Bahamas are expected in the wake of this trough. As previously mentioned, the northern extension of a tropical wave will move across the Atlantic waters as a trough, affecting forecast zone AMZ127 late tonight and Monday, with fresh to locally strong winds and seas of 7-8 ft. The pressure gradient between this trough and building high pressure N of the forecast region will bring an increase in winds and seas across the waters between 60W and 65W on Monday, then across the eastern forecast waters on Tuesday. A low may develop along the trough axis E of the forecast area on Tuesday. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.