000 AGXX40 KNHC 071818 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 218 PM EDT Sat Oct 7 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Attention remains focused on hurricane Nate forecast to make landfall along the central U.S. Gulf coast tonight. Nate is a little stronger over the central Gulf. Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to 80 kt with gusts to 95 kt. The new intensity forecast indicates that Nate will become a Category 2 hurricane before landfall on the central Gulf Coast. A couple of ship observations show that the 12 ft seas extend within about 180 nm on the east semicircle, while buoy 42001 located on the west side of Nate near 26N90W is only reporting 9 ft. Nate is moving rapidly toward the north-northwest at about 23 kt. On the forecast track, the center of Nate will move across the central and northern Gulf of Mexico the rest of today and will make landfall along the central U.S. Gulf coast tonight. Swells generated by Nate will affect land areas around the western Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. The large circulation of Nate dominates near the entire Gulf waters. Mainly moderate to locally fresh northerly winds are noted across the waters W of 94W with max seas of 6-7 ft based on buoy reports. Fresh to strong winds and seas of 10-12 ft are seen over the far eastern Gulf. As Nate makes landfall tonight, marine conditiones will gradually improve across the region, and by Sunday night mainly gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected across the Gulf with seas of 4-6 ft over the NE Gulf, and 3-4 ft across the remainder the area, with the exception of 2-3 ft in the SW Gulf. High pres ridging will build in the wake of Nate for the early part of next week with more tranquil marine conditions anticipated. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... An outer band of Hurricane Nate currently located over the Gulf of Mexico near 26.6.4N 88.4W is still affecting western Cuba and the NW Caribbean. The most recent scatterometer data indicate fresh to strong southerly winds across the basin N of 15N W of 80W...including the Yucatan Channel. Seas of 8-11 ft are seen with these winds, with the highest seas across the Yucatan Channel. As Hurricane Nate continues to move northward, winds and seas will diminish across the NW Caribbean. By tonight, expect mainly moderate southerly winds and seas of 4-5 ft. Elsewhere, mainly gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas dominate the basin outside of the influence of Nate. By early next week, ridging over the Atlantic will settle well north of the region, resulting in a weak pressure pattern over the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic waters with light to moderate winds and seas about 2 to 4 ft in the Caribbean waters, and 4 to 6 ft in the Atlantic waters. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... A ridge dominates the N waters while a trough is along 68W S of 27N. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are noted within about 210 nm e of the trough axis. Winds and seas could be higher near the tstms. The trough is forecast to slowly move towards the Bahamas through early next week while weakening. Then, a ridge will dominate near the entire area by Mon producing mainly moderate to locally fresh easterly winds E of the Bahamas with seas of 4-6 ft. Gentle NE-E winds will prevail W of the Bahamas, including the Old Bahamas Channel. Another trough will move across the area Tuesday night through probably Friday, preceded by fresh to possibly strong NE to E winds and building seas to 8 ft. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ013...N CENTRAL GULF INCLUDING FLOWER GARDEN BANKS MARINE SANCTUARY... Hurricane Warning today. Tropical Storm Warning tonight. .GMZ015...NE GULF N OF 25N E OF 87W... Tropical Storm Warning today. .GMZ019...CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W... Hurricane Warning today. .GMZ021...E GULF FROM 22N TO 25N E OF 87W INCLUDING STRAITS OF FLORIDA... Tropical Storm Warning today. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.