000 AGXX40 KNHC 061831 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 231 PM EDT Fri Oct 6 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A recent scatterometer pass indicated mainly 20 to 25 kt winds and 8 to 10 ft seas across the northeast and north central Gulf. This is indicative of a persistent tight pressure gradient between strong high pressure over the U.S. Mid- Atlantic region and Tropical Storm Nate moving north across the northwest Caribbean, with winds mainly east of a sharp surface trough reaching from the Yucatan Channel to southeast Louisiana. The winds and seas will gradually diminish through Sat as the low moves northeast and the pressure gradient relaxes somewhat. Meanwhile farther south Nate will intensify as it enters the south central Gulf late tonight, then will intensify further to hurricane strength over the central Gulf Sat, before continuing northward to make a landfall over the north central Gulf coast as a hurricane late Sat. Seas will build over the central Gulf accompanying this system, with peak wave heights expected to reach 22-26 ft. The seas 12 ft or greater will remain confined to mostly within 150 nm of the eastern semicircle of the system. Please visit hurricanes.gov for the latest forecast and more details on this system. High pres ridging will build in the wake of the system for the early part of next week with more tranquil marine conditions anticipated. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... Tropical Storm Nate was located near 18.7N 85.0W in the northwest Caribbean, and will gradually intensify as it moves toward the northeast tip of the Yucatan peninsula late today before continuing northward across the Gulf as a hurricane through Sat. Winds and seas will diminish across the northwest Caribbean through late Sat as Nate moves farther north. Please visit hurricanes.gov for the latest forecast and more details on this system. A widespread area of showers and thunderstorms associated with the broad circulation of Nate, extend quite a large distance from the storm, covering much of the Caribbean west of 75W and across central America. Heavy rainfall is expected to persist across the region north of 15N into central and western Cuba into Sat. Elsewhere, mainly gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas dominate the basin outside of the influence of Nate. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... Moderate east to southeast winds persist across the region, as high pressure builds north of the region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are evident north of 28N, related jet dynamics aloft. Upper forcing will induce a weak trough to the northeast of Bahamas over the next couple of days, along roughly 70W. The trough will drift westward into the Bahamas through Sun, but then dampen out. Seas in excess of 8 ft persist north of 22N outside of the Bahamas. This will gradually subside through Sat. However, fresh to strong winds may develop from 27N to 31N between 65W and 70W to the northeast of the surface trough Sat, with seas to 8 ft persisting into Sun. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ013...N CENTRAL GULF INCLUDING FLOWER GARDEN BANKS MARINE SANCTUARY... Hurricane Warning Sat into Sat night. .GMZ019...CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W... Tropical Storm Warning tonight into Sat. .GMZ021...E GULF FROM 22N TO 25N E OF 87W INCLUDING STRAITS OF FLORIDA... Tropical Storm Warning tonight. .GMZ025...E BAY OF CAMPECHE INCLUDING CAMPECHE BANK... Tropical Storm Warning tonight. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ011...CARIBBEAN N OF 18N W OF 85W INCLUDING YUCATAN BASIN... Tropical Storm Warning today into tonight. .AMZ013...CARIBBEAN N OF 18N BETWEEN 76W AND 85W INCLUDING CAYMAN BASIN... Tropical Storm Warning today. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Christensen. National Hurricane Center.