000 AGXX40 KNHC 060631 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 231 AM EDT Fri Oct 6 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A tight pressure gradient remains in place between strong high pressure over the U.S. Mid-Atlantic region and 1006 mb low pressure located near 25N84W. The low, with surface troughs extending south and east of the low, will move through the central Gulf today, before weakening over the northwest Gulf tonight. Recent scatterometer data indicate a large area of strong to near gale-force northeast to east winds over the east- central and northeast Gulf. These winds will gradually diminish to 20 to 25 kt today as the low moves eastward and the pressure gradient relaxes somewhat. Winds will continue to decrease tonight with seas subsiding below 8 ft associated with this system. Meanwhile farther south in the Caribbean, Tropical Storm Nate is emerging over the northern coast of Honduras this morning. Nate will intensify as it moves through the NW Caribbean today, then enter the south central Gulf late tonight. Nate will intensify further to hurricane strength over the central Gulf Sat, then continue northward to make a landfall over the north central Gulf coast as a hurricane early Sun. Seas will build over the central Gulf accompanying this system, with peak wave heights expected to reach 22-28 ft. The seas 12 ft or greater will remain confined to mostly within 180 nm of the eastern semicircle of the system. Please visit hurricanes.gov for the latest forecast and more details on this system. High pres ridging will build in the wake of the system for the early part of next week with more tranquil marine conditions anticipated. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... Tropical Storm Nate was located near 15.8N 84.7W, inland over northern Honduras earlier tonight, and is emerging offshore the northern coast of Honduras. Nate will gradually intensify as it moves across the northwest Caribbean toward the northeast tip of the Yucatan peninsula by late Fri, then will continue northward across the Gulf as a hurricane through Sat. Seas will build in excess of 20 ft in the strongest area of winds in the northwest Gulf through Fri. The system then will quickly pull away from the Caribbean with winds and seas diminishing and subsiding across the approach to the Yucatan Channel through Sat evening. Please visit hurricanes.gov for the latest forecast and more details on this system. A widespread area of showers and thunderstorms associated with the broad circulation of Nate, extend quite a large distance from the storm, covering much of the Caribbean west of 77W and across central America. The persistence of rainfall over central America over the past few days and ongoing the next day or so will continue to bring a threat for flooding over portions of central America, especially Nicaragua and Honduras. Elsewhere, mainly gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas dominate the basin outside of the influence of the Nate. Expect these conditions to prevail in the wake of the tropical system for the second half of the upcoming weekend into early next week. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... A sharp upper trough extends from the coastal Carolinas to the Yucatan peninsula, supporting a broad area of showers and thunderstorms across Cuba, South Florida, the Bahamas and the Atlantic waters off northeast Florida. Surface high pressure remains centered north of our area, while low pressure is over the SE gulf. The tight pressure gradient between these two systems continues to produce fresh to strong easterly winds over a long fetch from 25N to 29N as confirmed by recent scatterometer data. These winds support seas of 8 to 10 ft across most of the Atlantic forecast waters outside of the Bahamas. The low will cross the central Gulf today, helping to relax the pressure gradient and diminish winds to moderate over the area later today. Seas will subside below 8 ft over most of the forecast waters by late today, and reach 5 to 7 ft by tonight. Then over the weekend, a broad trough or weak area of low pressure is expected to form northeast of the central Bahamas by late Sat. This will support an area fresh to strong easterly winds and seas approaching 8 ft over the waters from 27N to 31N between 65W and 70W Sun into Mon. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ013...N CENTRAL GULF INCLUDING FLOWER GARDEN BANKS MARINE SANCTUARY... Tropical Storm Warning Sat into Sat night. .GMZ019...CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W... Tropical Storm Warning tonight into Sat. .GMZ021...E GULF FROM 22N TO 25N E OF 87W INCLUDING STRAITS OF FLORIDA... Tropical Storm Warning tonight. .GMZ025...E BAY OF CAMPECHE INCLUDING CAMPECHE BANK... Tropical Storm Warning tonight. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ011...CARIBBEAN N OF 18N W OF 85W INCLUDING YUCATAN BASIN... Tropical Storm Warning today into tonight. .AMZ013...CARIBBEAN N OF 18N BETWEEN 76W AND 85W INCLUDING CAYMAN BASIN... Tropical Storm Warning today. .AMZ017...GULF OF HONDURAS... Tropical Storm Warning early today into today. .AMZ019...CARIBBEAN FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W... Tropical Storm Warning early today into today. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Latto. National Hurricane Center.