000 AGXX40 KNHC 051806 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 206 PM EDT Thu Oct 5 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A tight pressure gradient remains in place between strong high pressure over the U.S. Mid-Atlantic region and 1008 mb low pressure in the Straits of Florida. The low, and an attendant surface trough, will move through the central Gulf Thu, before weakening over the northwest Gulf on Fri. Strong winds and seas to 8 ft will follow the trough/low into the north central Gulf Thu, but subside by Fri. Meanwhile farther south in the Caribbean, newly named Tropical Storm Nate is inland over northeast Nicaragua near Puerto Cabezas. Nate will intensify as it moves through the NW Caribbean Thu and Fri, then enter the south central Gulf by Fri night. Nate will intensify further to hurricane strength over the central Gulf Sat, then continue northward to make a landfall over the north central Gulf coast as a hurricane early Sun. Please visit hurricanes.gov for the latest forecast and more details on this system. High pres ridging will build in the wake of the system for the early part of next week with more tranquil marine conditions anticipated. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... Newly named Tropical Storm Nate was located inland over northeast Nicaragua near 14.3N 83.7W, close to Puerto Cabezas. Nate will gradually intensify as it moves across the northwest Caribbean toward the northeast tip of the Yucatan peninsula by late Fri, then will continue northward across the Gulf as a hurricane through Sat. Strong winds are limited to the coast of northeast Nicaragua currently. This is a relatively shallow area with complex of small islands and reefs, limiting large wave growth over large area. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are active across much of the southwest Caribbean, related to Nate. Seas will build in excess of 20 ft in the strongest area of winds in the northwest Gulf through Fri. The system then will quickly pull away from the Caribbean with winds and seas diminishing and subsiding across the approach to the Yucatan Channel through Sat evening. Please visit hurricanes.gov for the latest forecast and more details on this system. Otherwise, mainly moderate E to SE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas dominate the basin outside of the influence of the Nate. Expect light to moderate trades to prevail in the wake of the tropical system for the second half of the upcoming weekend into early next week. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... A sharp upper trough extends from the coastal Carolinas to the Yucatan peninsula, supporting a broad area of showers and thunderstorms across Cuba, South Florida, the Bahamas and the Atlantic waters off northeast Florida. A related surface trough reaches across the Florida peninsula to 1007 mb low pressure centered in the Straits of Florida north of Havana Cuba. Earlier scatterometer data and buoy observations indicated fresh to strong easterly winds across the region north of 27N, and along the entire east of coast of Florida. Seas are likely ranging from 8 to 13 ft north and northeast of the Bahamas. The low pressure and surface trough will shift W into the Gulf and the pressure gradient is forecast to significantly weaken in its wake. Winds will become E to SE at moderate to locally fresh levels across the basin tonight, Winds will continue to diminish during Fri to gentle to moderate, with seas also continuing to subside to 4 to 7 ft at that same time. Looking ahead, global models continue to show a broad trough or even a weak area of low pressure forming around 400 nm northeast of the central Bahamas by late Sat. This will support fresh to strong easterly winds and seas approaching 8 ft over the waters from 27N to 31N between 65W and 70W. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ019...CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W... Tropical Storm Warning Fri night. .GMZ021...E GULF FROM 22N TO 25N E OF 87W INCLUDING STRAITS OF FLORIDA... Tropical Storm Warning Fri night. .GMZ025...E BAY OF CAMPECHE INCLUDING CAMPECHE BANK... Tropical Storm Warning Fri night. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ011...CARIBBEAN N OF 18N W OF 85W INCLUDING YUCATAN BASIN... Tropical Storm Warning Fri into Fri night. .AMZ013...CARIBBEAN N OF 18N BETWEEN 76W AND 85W INCLUDING CAYMAN BASIN... Tropical Storm Warning Fri. .AMZ017...GULF OF HONDURAS... Tropical Storm Warning tonight into Fri. .AMZ019...CARIBBEAN FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W... Tropical Storm Warning tonight into Fri. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ117...BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAY SAL BANK... Gale Warning today. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Christensen. National Hurricane Center.