000 AGXX40 KNHC 041826 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 226 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A tight gradient remains in place between strong high pressure stretched out across the U.S. Mid-Atlantic states and newly developed Tropical Depression Sixteen-E in the southwest Caribbean. Recent buoy observations and scatterometer passes indicated a broad swath of strong NE to E winds across the E central Gulf. This is a little lower than earlier this morning, and the gale warning that was in effect has been lowered. A surface trough continues to remain stationary from NW to SE across the Veracruz offshore waters, with fresh NW winds W of the trough. Fresh winds prevail elsewhere across the basin. Seas are mainly 8 to 13 ft, highest where the gale force winds are, except 5 to 8 ft in the SW Gulf. Winds will gradually diminish through Thu ahead of a trough moving through the Straits of Florida. The situation will change going into Fri, as a the tropical cyclone in the Caribbean, by then a tropical storm, moves through the Yucatan Channel into the southeast and south central Gulf. The official forecast follows the ECMWF on the east side of the guidance, and winds over the eastern Gulf were increased accordingly. The tropical cyclone is expected to reach hurricane strength by early Sun, just before making landfall on the western Florida Panhandle. Marine interests should monitor the latest advisory from the NHC at http://hurricanes.gov. Conditions should become much more tranquil by early next week as Atlantic ridging NE of the area builds in the wake of any low, with moderate return flow dominating the basin. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... Tropical Depression Sixteen-E has formed in the southwest Caribbean near 12.2N 81.9W. Sixteen-E is expected to intensify to a tropical storm near 12.7N 82.6W this evening, then move inland near Cabo Gracias a Dios in NE Nicaragua and eastern Honduras Wed, before continuing northward toward the Yucatan Channel through Thu. Seas will build to 15 ft by 48 hours, building to 20 ft before the cyclone reaches the Yucatan Channel. A broad area of seas in excess of 8 ft will persist over the northwest Caribbean through early Sat. Marine interests in the western Caribbean should monitor the latest advisory from the NHC at http://hurricanes.gov. Winds and seas subside across the basin through early next week. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... A sharp upper trough remains in place from the Florida peninsula through western Cuba. This is supporting a large area of showers and thunderstorms across eastern and central Cuba. No defined low level circulation is apparent on satellite imagery, Cuban radar mosaic, or regional observations. However, it is like a sharp surface trough is in place across central Cuba into the Straits of Florida. This trough will move into the southeast Gulf of Mexico through Thu, before being absorbed into the approaching T.S. Sixteen-E moving into the southeast Gulf Fri. A shear line remains in place along roughly 25N, with strong to near gale force winds noted in buoy observations and recent scatterometer data, mainly east of the Bahamas. These winds will be diminishing through the next couple of days as the high pressure north of the region weakens. Seas of 10 to 13 ft will subside accordingly. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ011...CARIBBEAN N OF 18N W OF 85W INCLUDING YUCATAN BASIN... Tropical Storm Warning Thu night into Fri. .AMZ013...CARIBBEAN N OF 18N BETWEEN 76W AND 85W INCLUDING CAYMAN BASIN... Tropical Storm Warning Thu night into Fri. .AMZ017...GULF OF HONDURAS... Tropical Storm Warning Thu night into Fri. .AMZ019...CARIBBEAN FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W... Tropical Storm Warning Thu night into Fri. .AMZ029...W CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N W OF 80W... Tropical Storm Warning tonight into Thu. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Christensen. National Hurricane Center.