000 AGXX40 KNHC 020703 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 303 AM EDT Mon Oct 2 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A middle to upper level low continues to shift slowly SW across the Yucatan Peninsula toward the SW Gulf, and is advecting deep layered moisture N through the Yucatan Channel and into the SE and S central Gulf where active convection persists. The upper low will shift further SW into the Bay of Campeche through today. A weak stationary front extends from near Tampa Bay to 29N87W to 1010 mb low pressure near 27N90W. A strong pressure gradient N of the front is supporting fresh to strong NE to E winds and seas of 7 to 10 ft. The low will shift W while opening up to a trough prior to reaching the Texas coast this upcoming evening. The strong NE to E winds will expand to the S and W as the trough exits, covering the waters E of 92W by Tue evening along with 7 to 11 ft seas, with moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 4 to 7 ft seas elsewhere. The pressure gradient will start to relax by the end of the week with winds diminishing to moderate throughout by Fri night. Seas will begin to subside as a result, to 6 to 9 ft by Fri night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... Numerous showers and thunderstorms continue across the NW Caribbean, supported by the mid to upper low over the Yucatan Peninsula with upper troughing wrapping around the low through the Yucatan Channel to eastern Honduras. A tropical wave along 76W continues to interact with an upper level low that is over the approach to the Windward Passage, supporting numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms across the central Caribbean, from central Colombia and NW Venezuela northward to eastern Jamaica. This tropical wave and accompanying upper low will move westward, reaching Central America by mid-week. Mainly moderate E to SE flow and seas of 3 to 5 ft dominate the basin, except 1 to 3 ft seas in the SW Caribbean where SE winds are gentle. A tropical wave currently along 50W/51W will move into the Tropical N Atlantic by early Tue, then the E Caribbean by early Wed. Moderate E to SE trades in the wake of the current tropical wave will freshen and become easterly by Tue in advance of this next wave. Broad and elongated troughing will develop in the western Caribbean by the end of the week, with winds being southerly W of about 76W heading into the weekend. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... A cold front extends from 31N64W to 1014 mb low pressure near 28N72W then continues to the Florida Peninsula as a stationary front to Fort Pierce. Strong high pressure continues to build down N of the front with fresh to near gale force NE to E winds and 8 to 12 ft seas. The gale force winds that were occurring mainly within 60 nm of shore or in higher gusts beyond 60 nm have diminished. A surface trough is analyzed to the S, extending from 24N69W to the N coast of Haiti. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring near this feature. Moderate to fresh winds are observed S of 25N with gentle to moderate winds N of 25N and S of the front. Seas are mainly 4 to 7 ft S of the front. The cold portion of the front will continue eastward while the remainder stalls along 27N/26N by this evening with high pressure continuing to build N of the front. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will continue to spread southward in its wake through mid- week covering the waters N of 25N where seas will be 8 to 13 ft. Moderate to locally fresh easterly flow will prevail S of 25N along with 6 to 8 ft seas by mid-week. The pressure gradient will weaken significantly by the end of the week allowing for winds to relax to gentle to moderate across the basin with seas slowly subsiding to 7 to 10 ft by Fri afternoon. A weak pressure pattern with light and variable winds with linger 6 to 9 ft seas in easterly swell looks to start of the weekend. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Lewitsky. National Hurricane Center.