000 AGXX40 KNHC 161912 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 312 PM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Weak ridging along the northern Gulf will result in mainly gentle to moderate winds and seas 1 to 3 ft the next several days. The only exception will be a thermal trough moving off the Yucatan Peninsula each night supporting locally fresh winds with seas briefly reaching around 4 or 5 ft over the eastern Bay of Campeche. A weak surface trough over the central Gulf will support scattered showers and thunderstorms the next few days as it drifts slowly westward toward the western Gulf waters. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... Hurricane Jose is centered roughly about 420 nm SSE of Cape Hatteras NC, moving NW at 8 kt, with maximum sustained winds of 70 kt gusts to 80 kt. Jose is forecast to strengthen slightly as it reaches near 29.5N 72.4W early tonight, to near 30.8N 72.2W by early Sunday, then lift N of the area Sunday afternoon to near 32.4N 72.0W by Sunday evening with maximum sustained winds 75 kt gusts 90 kt, then begin to weaken as it reaches to near 34.0N 72.0W by early on Monday with maximum sustained winds 70 kt gusts 85 kt. Swell producing seas of 7 to 9 ft N of 19N over the Atlc waters will subside to 5 to 7 ft through this morning as jose gets farther from the region. Swell of 6 to 7 ft propagating through the Atlantic Passages of the NE Caribbean will subside through today. Elsewhere, a tropical wave along 82W will move across the the western Caribbean through Sunday night before moving inland Central America early on Monday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany the wave. Another tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean Sea near 65W will move across the rest of the eastern Caribbean Sea through Sunday afternoon, then across the central Caribbean Sunday evening through Monday, the eastern part of the western Caribbean Monday night into early Tuesday and the remainder of the western Caribbean during Tuesday and through Thursday. Of main concern is that recently named Tropical Depression Fifteen centered about 600 nm ESE of the Lesser Antilles has maximum sustained winds of 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt and a pressure of 1008 mb. Latest satellite imagery shows that this cyclone appears to be quickly developing as indicated by impressive banding features coiling around the CDO feature. The 15Z NHC advisory has the depression forecast to intensify to a tropical storm near 12.8N 52.8W early tonight with maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt, reach near 13.6N 55.1W early Sunday, near 14.3N 56.9W early Sunday evening with maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt, and continue to gradually strengthen as it reaches near 15.0N 58.6W early Monday, then enter the eastern Caribbean Sea late Monday while intensifying to a hurricane reaching near 16.3N 61.3W early Tuesday with maximum sustained winds 75 kt gusts 90 kt. The cyclone is forecast to reach near 17.6N 64.0W early on Wednesday with maximum sustained winds 80 kt gusts 100 kt, and to near 18.7N 67.3W early Thursday with maximum sustained winds 80 kt gusts to 100 kt. Across the remainder of the Caribbean, high pressure will begin to build SSW across the central Atlantic through Sunday, which will increase trades slightly, and bring fresh easterlies along the northern coast of Colombia and Venezuela at night through Monday night. The Tropical Cyclone Fifteen will weaken the ridge, resulting in gentle to moderate winds over the central and western Caribbean middle to late next week. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... The main feature is Hurricane Jose centered roughly about 420 nm SSE of Cape Hatteras NC, moving NW at 8 kt, with maximum sustained winds of 70 kt gusts to 80 kt. Jose is forecast to forecast to strengthen slightly as it reaches near 29.5N 72.4W early tonight, to near 30.8N 72.2W by early Sunday, then lift N of the area Sunday afternoon to near 32.4N 72.0W by Sunday evening with maximum sustained winds 75 kt gusts 90 kt, then begin to weaken as it reaches to near 34.0N 72.0W by early on Monday with maximum sustained winds 70 kt gusts 85 kt. As stated in previous discussions Jose will continue to generate large swell across the waters across the Atlantic forecast waters outside of the Bahamas this weekend. By late Monday winds should diminish below gale force and seas will lower to less than 12 ft over the forecast waters as Jose continues to pull to the N. A trough will extend from the NE in the wake of Jose to near the Bahamas through Monday, then become diffused just E of Florida by mid week. Central Atlantic high pressure will build southwestward to the eastern portion of the basin in the wake of Jose beginning today through Wednesday, with a weak pressure pattern and light winds developing over the northwestern waters early next week. The pressure gradient is expected to begin to tighten over the far SE waters beginning late on Tuesday and through Thursday night as recently named Tropical Depression Fifteen is forecast to enter the eastern Caribbean Sea late Monday while intensifying to a hurricane reaching near 16.3N 61.3W early Tuesday with maximum sustained winds 75 kt gusts 90 kt. It is forecast to track NW over the eastern Caribbean afterwards through Wednesday night. Confidence is higher with respect to the forecast track of the newly named Tropical Depression Fifteen during the middle part of next week as GFS/ECMWF guidance is pretty similar with a track across the NE Caribbean, and towards the NE coast of Hispaniola on Thursday. This will bring the aforementioned impacts to winds and seas over the far SE waters at that time. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ027...TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W... Tropical Storm Warning Sun into Mon. .AMZ037...TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 15N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... Tropical Storm Warning tonight into Mon. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... Hurricane Warning today into Sun. Tropical Storm Warning Sun night. .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... Tropical Storm Warning Sun. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Aguirre. National Hurricane Center.