000 AGXX40 KNHC 160538 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 138 AM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Weak ridging along the northern Gulf will result in mainly gentle to moderate winds and seas 1 to 3 ft the next several days. The only exception will be a thermal trough moving off the Yucatan Peninsula each night supporting locally fresh winds with seas briefly reaching around 4 or 5 ft over the eastern Bay of Campeche. A weak surface trough over the central Gulf will support scattered showers and thunderstorms the next few days as it drifts slowly westward toward the western Gulf waters. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... Tropical Storm Jose is centered roughly about 450 nm N of Hispaniola as of 11PM EDT. It is moving NW at 8 kt, with maximum sustained winds of 70 kt gusts to 80 kt. Jose is forecast to continue as a Category 1 hurricane and move to near 29.2N 72.3W by Sat evening, then 32.0N 72.0W by Sun evening, and then near 34.6N 71.8W by Mon evening. Swell producing seas of 7 to 9 ft N of 19N over the Atlc waters will subside to 5 to 7 ft through this morning as jose gets farther from the region. Swell of 6 to 7 ft propagating through the Atlantic Passages of the NE Caribbean will subside through today. Elsewhere, a tropical wave along 78W will move across the the western Caribbean today through late Sunday night before moving inland Central America early on Monday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany the wave. Another tropical wave along 52W will move across the eastern Caribbean through tonight, the central Caribbean Sunday through early Monday and the eastern part of the western Caribbean Monday night. A low pressure system is expected to approach 55W on Sunday, and move across the Tropical N Atlantic through Monday as it nears the Lesser Antilles. This low may possibly become a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours. It is expected to move into the northeastern Caribbean early next week. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms with gusty winds will accompany this low pressure area the next couple of days, with seas building to 8 to 9 ft. These conditions may be much more adverse pending development of the low as it tracks west to west- northwest the next several days. Across the remainder of the Caribbean, high pressure will begin to build SSW across the central Atlantic today, which will increase trades slightly, and bring fresh easterlies along the northern coast of Colombia and Venezuela at night through Monday night. The approach of the possible tropical cyclone over the NW Caribbean will likely weaken the ridge once again, resulting in gentle to moderate winds over the central and western Caribbean middle to late next week. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... Hurricane Jose is near 27.4N 71.0W 983 mb at 11 PM EDT moving NW at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds 70 kt gusts 80 kt. Jose is forecast to continue as a Category 1 hurricane and move to near 29.2N 72.3W by Sat evening, then 32.0N 72.0W by Sun evening, and then near 34.6N 71.8W by Mon evening. Jose will continue to generate large swell across the waters across the Atlc forecast waters outside of the Bahamas this weekend. By late Mon winds should diminish below gale force and seas will drop below 12 ft in our area as Jose continues northward. A trough will extend from the NE in the wake of Jose to near the Bahamas through Monday, then become diffuse just E of Florida by mid week. Central Atlantic high pressure will build southwestward to the eastern portion of the basin in the wake of Jose beginning today through Wednesday, with a weak pressure pattern and light winds developing over the northwestern waters early next week. The pressure gradient is expected to begin to tighten over the far SE waters beginning late on Tuesday and through Wednesday night as low pressure, possibly a tropical cyclone, which is currently a tropical low over the central Atlantic moves into the eastern Caribbean Sea. Seas associated with this system are currently expected to increase to around 8 or 9 ft by late Wednesday over the SE waters. The forecast for that time period is low confidence as there remains uncertainty with the actual forecast track and intensity of this next possible tropical cyclone. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... Hurricane Warning early today into Sun. Tropical Storm Warning Sun night. .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... Tropical Storm Warning early today into today. Tropical Storm Warning Sun into Sun night. .AMZ119...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N E OF BAHAMAS TO 70W... Tropical Storm Warning early today into today. .AMZ121...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... Tropical Storm Warning early today. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Latto. National Hurricane Center.