000 AGXX40 KNHC 151825 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 225 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Weak ridging along the northern Gulf will result in mainly gentle to moderate winds and seas 1 to 3 ft the next several days. The only exception will be a thermal trough moving off the Yucatan Peninsula each night supporting locally fresh winds each night with seas briefly reaching around 4 or 5 ft over the eastern Bay of Campeche. A weak surface trough over the central Gulf will support scattered showers and thunderstorms the next few days as it drifts slowly westward toward the western Gulf waters. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... Tropical Storm Jose is centered roughly about 300 nm NE of the southeastern Bahamas as of 11AM EDT. It is moving NW at 8 kt, with maximum sustained winds of 60 kt gusts to 75 kt. Jose is forecast to move NW through today and re-intensify to a hurricane near 27.1N 70.7W by this evening, with maximum sustained winds 70 kt gusts to 85 kt. The cyclone is then forecast to turn to the NNW by late Saturday as it reaches near 29.1N 72.5W, with maximum sustained winds 80 kt gusts to 100 kt, and lift N of 31N on Sunday. Swell producing seas of 7 to 9 ft from Jose will impact the Atlantic waters N of 19N through this evening, with 6 to 7 ft seas propagating through the Atlantic Passages of the NE Caribbean. Swell will subside over the weekend as Jose begins to move away from the region. Elsewhere, a tropical wave along 74W will move across the central Caribbean through tonight, and across the western Caribbean Saturday through late Sunday night before moving inland Central America early on Monday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, at times, may accompany the wave. Another tropical wave along 58W will move across the eastern Caribbean through Saturday night, the central Caribbean Sunday through early Monday and the eastern part of the western Caribbean Monday night. A third, more vigorous tropical wave or low pressure system is expected to approach 55W on Sunday, and move across the Tropical N Atlantic through early Monday night as it nears the Lesser Antilles. This wave or low may possibly become a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours. It is expected to move into the northeastern Caribbean early next week. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms with gusty winds will accompany this wave or low pressure the next couple of days, with seas building to 8 to 9 ft. These conditions may be much more adverse pending development of it as it tracks in west to west-northwest direction. Across the remainder of the Caribbean, a weak pressure pattern due to Jose to the north will result in mainly gentle to moderate winds through today. High pressure will begin to build SSW across thew central Atlantic by Friday night which will increase trades slightly, and bring fresh easterlies along the northern coast of Colombia and Venezuela at night. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... Tropical Storm Jose is centered roughly about 300 nm NE of the southeastern Bahamas as of 11 AM EDT. It is moving WNW at 8 kt, with maximum sustained winds of 60 kt gusts to 75 kt. Jose is s forecast to move NW through today and re-intensify to a hurricane near 27.1N 70.7W by this evening, with maximum sustained winds 70 kt gusts to 85 kt. The cyclone is then forecast to turn to the NNW by late Saturday as it reaches near 29.1N 72.5W, with maximum sustained winds 80 kt gusts to 100 kt, and and maintain intensity as it reaches near 30.4N 72.4W early on Sunday. Jose is forecast to lift N of the area on Sunday afternoon reaching near 33.3N 72.2W by early on Monday. As stated in previous discussions, Jose will be a swell generator through the rest of the week and into the weekend, with seas in excess of 8 ft in mixed swell dominating the waters E of the Bahamas SE to the waters just N and NE of Puerto Rico. The swell will be slow in subsiding over the weekend, and will linger across the northern zones into early next week after the cyclone exits the region. In the wake of Jose, a trough will extend from near 31N72W to the vicinity of the southeastern Bahamas and to southeastern Cuba through Monday then become stretched out just east of the eastern Florida coast by mid week. Central Atlantic high pressure will build southwestward to the eastern portion of the basin in the wake of Jose late this week and into the middle portion of next week. The gradient is expected to begin to tighten over the far SE waters beginning late on Tuesday and through Wednesday night as low pressure, possibly a tropical cyclone, which is currently a tropical wave over the central Atlantic moves into the eastern Caribbean Sea as a possible tropical cyclone. A SE swell is expected to build the seas across the far SE waters resulting in seas up to around 8 or 9 ft. The forecast for that time period is low confidence based as there remains uncertainty with the actual forecast track of this next possible tropical cyclone that tracks in the general direction of the Caribbean next week. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... Tropical Storm Warning today. Hurricane Warning tonight into Sat night. .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... Tropical Storm Warning early today into tonight. .AMZ119...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N E OF BAHAMAS TO 70W... Tropical Storm Warning early today. Hurricane Warning today into tonight. Tropical Storm Warning Sat. .AMZ121...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... Tropical Storm Warning early today into tonight. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Aguirre. National Hurricane Center.