000 AGXX40 KNHC 081819 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 219 PM EDT Fri Sep 8 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Hurricane Katia is near 22.0N 75.3W 927 mb at 11 AM EDT and is moving west-southwestward at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 85 kt gusts to 105 kt. Katia is forecast to strengthen slightly as it slowly moves SW towards the coast of Veracruz Mexico, with maximum sustained winds reaching 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt early this evening before making landfall early Sat and gradually weakening. Farther east, major Hurricane Irma is forecast to enter the eastern Straits of Florida Saturday evening, then turn northward across the Florida peninsula late Sat night and Sun. This will bring tropical storm force or possibly even hurricane force winds to the eastern portions of Florida Bay and possibly portions of the SE zones. Tropical storm conditions will then spread northward to the northeastern Gulf Sunday night through Monday evening. Prior to these conditions arriving, strong NE winds will develop over much of the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday as the gradient there tightens between low pressure associated with Irma and high pressure ridging to its NW and N. Expect seas to build to 8-10 ft over the eastern on Saturday with increase of these winds. These seas will only continue to build into early next with the advent of the tropical storm force winds with Irma. Elsewhere, the earlier stationary front that extended from west central Florida to central and SW Gulf has dissipated. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... Major Hurricane Irma is near 22.0N 75.3W 927 mb at 11 AM EDT moving WNW at 12 kt, with maximum sustained winds 130 kt with gusts to 160 kt moving WNW at 12 kt. Irma is forecast to continue to track WNW to the S of the Bahamas through Saturday, bringing strong winds and very high seas to the waters around the central Bahamas, Straits of Florida, and surrounding waters through early on Sunday. Farther E, Hurricane Jose was centered near 16.3N 57.1W at 11 AM EDT moving WNW at 16 kt, with maximum sustained winds 135 kt gusts 160 kt. Jose is forecast to continue on a WNW motion and reach near 16.8N 59.0W early tonight, with maximum sustained winds 130 kt gusts to 160 kt, then to near 17.7N 61.0W early on Saturday, with maximum sustained winds 125 kt gusts to 150 kt, to near 19.0N 62.9W early Saturday night, with maximum sustained winds 120 kt gusts 145 kt, to near 20.6N 65.0W early on Sunday, with maximum sustained winds 110 kt gusts to 135 kt, then weaken further as it reaches to near 24.2N 68.3W early on Monday, with maximum sustained winds 95 kt gusts to 115 kt, and to near 26.4N 68.6W early on Tuesday, with maximum sustained winds 85 kt gusts to 105 kt and to near 28.0N 67.5W early on Wednesday. Large swell will propagate through the waters near the Leeward Islands beginning tonight in advance of Jose. Elsewhere, a weak pressure pattern due to the storms to the N will continue to promote gentle to moderate winds over the central and southern Caribbean through the weekend. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... Major Hurricane Irma near 22.0N 75.3W 927 mb at 11 AM EDT moving WNW at 12 kt, with maximum sustained winds 130 kt with gusts to 160 kt. Irma is forecast to continue WNW across the waters to the S of the southern Bahamas today, with its associated strong winds and high seas gradually spreading across the central Bahamas, Straits of Florida, and surrounding waters through Saturday night. Extremely large seas topping off to the lower 40s are near the center of the hurricane. This is part of a larger area of 12 ft seas north of Irma, with the 12 ft radii in the NE quadrant extending out to about 450 nm. E to SE swell to the NE through W Irma are propagating well out ahead of the main wind field. This swell is reaching the Florida coast, and has reached the boundaries of the SE U.S. coast. As Irma makes its turn to the north on Saturday, wave heights will build between the Bahamas and the Florida coast to near 50 ft near the storm center, with these wave heights moving northward just offshore the SE Florida coast on Sunday. As Irma weakens over land, these peak wave heights will gradually decrease, with anticipated peak wave heights of about 25 to 30 ft offshore northern Florida early Monday. For more on Hurricane Irma, see hurricanes.gov. Farther E, very impressive Hurricane Jose was centered near 16.3N 57.1W at 11 AM EDT moving WNW at 16 kt, with maximum sustained winds 135 kt gusts 160 kt. Jose is forecast to continue on a WNW motion and reach near 16.8N 59.0W early tonight, with maximum sustained winds 130 kt gusts to 160 kt, then to near 17.7N 61.0W early on Saturday, with maximum sustained winds 125 kt gusts to 150 kt, to near 19.0N 62.9W early Saturday night, with maximum sustained winds 120 kt gusts 145 kt, to near 20.6N 65.0W early on Sunday, with maximum sustained winds 110 kt gusts to 135 kt. Jose is still on track to cross N of 22N Sunday night near 65W, staying east of the Bahamas through the forecast period with peak wave heights near 25 to 30 ft. Past Monday, the forecast track with Jose becomes quite complex as models pose various possible scenarios. For grids beyond the NHC forecast time frame, I kept continuity with latest NHC advisory using a track similar to the ECMWF but to its N. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ015...NE GULF N OF 25N E OF 87W... Tropical Storm Warning Sat night into Sun. .GMZ021...E GULF FROM 22N TO 25N E OF 87W INCLUDING STRAITS OF FLORIDA... Tropical Storm Warning tonight. Hurricane Warning Sat into Sat night. Tropical Storm Warning Sun. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... Hurricane Warning today into tonight. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ025...OFFSHORE WATERS LEEWARD ISLANDS... Hurricane Warning tonight through Sat night. .AMZ027...TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W... Hurricane Warning today into tonight. Tropical Storm Warning Saturday. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W... Tropical Storm Warning Sunday. .AMZ117...BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAY SAL BANK... Hurricane Warning today into Sat night. Tropical Storm Warning Sunday. .AMZ121...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... Tropical Storm Warning Sunday. .AMZ123...ATLANTIC S OF 22N W OF 70W INCLUDING APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE... Hurricane Warning into tonight. .AMZ125...ATLANTIC S OF 22N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W INCLUDING PUERTO RICO TRENCH... Tropical Storm Warning Sat night. Hurricane Warning Sun. .AMZ127...ATLANTIC FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... Hurricane Warning Saturday into Sunday. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Aguirre. National Hurricane Center.