000 AGXX40 KNHC 071036 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 636 AM EDT Thu Sep 7 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Hurricane Katia near 21.5N 94.5W 989 mb at 5 AM EDT nearly stationary. Maximum sustained winds 70 kt gusts 85 kt. Katia is forecast to remain relatively stationary and slowly strengthen through tonight then begin to move SW as high pres to N of slow moving cold front forces Katia inland across Mexico by Fri night. Farther east, Hurricane Irma continues to move WNW passing N of the Greater Antilles and will continue towards the Straits of Florida, and is forecast to make a sharp right turn late Sat near the Cay Sal area of the Bahamas toward S Florida. This may bring tropical storm force or even hurricane force winds to the eastern portions of Florida Bay and possibly portions of the SE zones. Depending on the eventual track and intensity of Irma as it moves northward up the Florida peninsula, hurricane conditions are possible in the far eastern Gulf early next week. Elsewhere, the cold front mentioned above has moved into the northern Gulf, and will stall from the Big Bend area of Florida to southern Texas through Fri, before lifting northward ahead of Irma. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... Major Hurricane Irma near 20.0N 68.4W 921 mb at 5 AM EDT moving WNW at 14 kt. Maximum sustained winds 155 kt gusts 190 kt. Irma is offshore of NE coast of the DR and forecast to continue WNW today and remain just offshore of Hispaniola and then move generally between the Turks and Caicos and the Inagua Islands, impacting them greatly, then pass between Cuba and the Bahamas Fri through early Sat. Trades to be completely disrupted next several days as Irma passes N of area then veers NW and then N across the Straits of Florida Sat through Sun. TS force winds will be seen on SW coastal waters of Cuba and in Windward Passage as Irma moves past Hispaniola then Cuba. TS Jose to approach Tropical N Atlc waters late Thu into early Fri then turn NW and scare the Leewards as it approaches early Sat. Swell to reach these waters and islands well ahead of Jose. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... The main story for the next several days continues to be major Hurricane Irma, near 20.0N 68.4W 921 mb at 5 AM EDT moving WNW at 14 kt. Irma is offshore of NE coast of the DR and will continue WNW through tonight, moving generally between the Turks and Caicos and the Inagua Islands, and impacting them and Acklins Island greatly. Irma has generated a large area of 12 ft seas in E to SE swell to the NE through W of it propagating well out ahead of the main wind field. This swell is hitting buoys to the N and NW and will begin to reach the E coast of Florida this afternoon and then very strongly across FL, GA and then SC tonight through Fri with 5-7 ft swell initially at 17-18 secs. This will produce very large surge well in excess of 10-12 ft and with this wave length will runup upon the beach to cause significant beach erosion and potential coastal flooding. Otherwise, no significant change in model guidance and Irma is expected to continue to the WNW to near the Cay Sal area by late Sat, then take a sharp northward turn into S Florida, then continue northward across or near the east coast of Florida into early next week. The EC ensembles still have spread on either side of FL during this time, and it would make sense that this monster storm could not make such a sharp and quick N turn. Thus a motion into S FL and possibly SW portions of the peninsula is not out of question before moving N. Meanwhile farther east, Hurricane Jose is near 14.8N 49.1W 986 mb at 5 AM EDT moving WNW at 16 kt. Maximum sustained winds 80 kt gusts 100 kt. Jose is forecast to continue WNW while gradually strengthening, and pass 55W late Thu into early Fri, then move close the northern Leeward Islands before recurving northward to the east of the Bahamas. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... Tropical Storm Warning early today into today. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... Tropical Storm Warning early today into today. Hurricane Warning tonight into Fri night. .GMZ025...E BAY OF CAMPECHE INCLUDING CAMPECHE BANK... Tropical Storm Warning early today into today. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ027...TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W... Hurricane Warning tonight into Fri night. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ117...BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAY SAL BANK... Tropical Storm Warning today. Hurricane Warning tonight into Fri night. .AMZ119...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N E OF BAHAMAS TO 70W... Tropical Storm Warning today. Hurricane Warning tonight. Tropical Storm Warning Fri. .AMZ121...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... Tropical Storm Warning early today into tonight. .AMZ123...ATLANTIC S OF 22N W OF 70W INCLUDING APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE... Tropical Storm Warning early today. Hurricane Warning today into Fri. Tropical Storm Warning Fri night. .AMZ125...ATLANTIC S OF 22N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W INCLUDING PUERTO RICO TRENCH... Hurricane Warning early today into today. Tropical Storm Warning tonight. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Stripling. National Hurricane Center.