000 AGXX40 KNHC 061042 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 642 AM EDT Wed Sep 6 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Cold front is approaching region from the N tonight with weak high pres over E Gulf offshore of Tampa Bay. T.D. Convection has blossomed overnight invof T.D. thirteen and satellite signature suggests we have a TS. In fact a 03Z ASCAT pass showed valid winds of TS force in SE quad. Seas likely approaching 10 ft per nomogram calculations and nwps output and should reach 12 ft by sunrise. TD upgraded to TS Katia at 09Z and will drift SE in short term then be showed SW and inland do cyclonic loop and move inland late Fri through Sat as high pres builds across N Gulf behind dissipating front and to W of approaching Irma. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... Major hurricane Irma has moved across Barbuda overnight and now reaching Anguilla and St Marteen with storm force winds and large strong swell spilling into NE Carib passages. Trades to be completely disrupted next several days as Irma moves WNW and just N of the Greater Antilles and then veers NW and then N across the Straits of Florida Sat through Sun. Models have all shifted back to the E at that time and is now uncertain which side of Florida Irma may move across. TS force winds will be seen on SW coastal waters of Cuba and in Windward Passage as Irma moves past Hispaniola then Cuba. TS Jose to approach Tropical N Atlc waters Thu afternoon then turn NW and scare the Leewards as it approaches early Sat. Swell to reach these waters and islands well ahead of Jose. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... Irma remains cat 5 this morning as it is reaching Anguilla and St Marteen. The WNW motion has begun overnight and will continue across the Nrn VI with eye having a decent chance of not touching Puerto Rico. Large and strong E to NE swell is spreading across the Atlc waters of PR and N of Hispaniola this morning with buoys N and NW of Irma indicating that large and very strong SE swell has been generated and expected to reach the Bahamas early Thu and the Florida and SE U.S. coasts Thu night through Friday. SE swell 5-6 ft at 18 seconds calculated from current buoy obs. Models have shifted E again in the long range and now produce an uncertain forecast for the NW and then NW turn of Irma as it approaches the Straits of Florida Sat. Look for future forecasts to shift gradually E as guidance become more clear. TS Jose across the tropical N Atlc will approach the Leeward Islands but expected to turn NNW and miss the islands and move into the open Atlc beyond that time. Have used a large percentage of the EC beyond day 3. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... Tropical Storm Warning today into Thu night. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... Tropical Storm Warning today into Thu night. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ023...CARIBBEAN N OF 15N BETWEEN 64W AND 72W... Tropical Storm Warning today. .AMZ025...OFFSHORE WATERS LEEWARD ISLANDS... Hurricane Warning early today into today. Tropical Storm Warning tonight. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ117...BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAY SAL BANK... Tropical Storm Warning Thu into Thu night. .AMZ119...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N E OF BAHAMAS TO 70W... Tropical Storm Warning Thu into Thu night. .AMZ121...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... Tropical Storm Warning tonight into Thu night. .AMZ123...ATLANTIC S OF 22N W OF 70W INCLUDING APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE... Tropical Storm Warning tonight. Hurricane Warning Thu into Thu night. .AMZ125...ATLANTIC S OF 22N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W INCLUDING PUERTO RICO TRENCH... Hurricane Warning today into Thu. Tropical Storm Warning Thu night. .AMZ127...ATLANTIC FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... Tropical Storm Warning early today. Hurricane Warning today. Tropical Storm Warning tonight. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Stripling. National Hurricane Center.