000 AGXX40 KNHC 051844 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 244 PM EDT Tue Sep 5 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A recent scatterometer pass indicated a well defined area of low pressure off Tampico Mexico near 22N97W with 20 to 25 kt winds within 60 nm. The low pressure is along a surface trough reaching from 24N98W to 18N95W along the Mexican coast. Convection is building around the low pressure, with numerous moderate to isolated strong convection noted within 60 nm of in the NE quadrant of the low, and scattered moderate convection from 21N to 24N between 92W and 96W. The low pressure has a moderate chance of tropical cyclone development over the next 48 hours, as it meanders over the southwest Gulf through Fri. Farther north, scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted across the NW and north central Gulf, related to jet dynamics aloft. A cold front is slowly drifting southward over the Deep South states, and will move into the NW Gulf early Wed. The front will modify as it slowly moves south, stallinging from the Florida Big Bend area in the NE Gulf to the northern coast of Tamaulipas in the west central Gulf by early Thu, before starting to dissipate as it moves northward Fri. Fresh to strong winds will follow the front over the north central Gulf by Thu. General model consensus indicates the associated shear may limit further development of the low pressure over the southwest Gulf late in the week. Meanwhile, Hurricane Irma will enter the Straits of Florida by late Fri before the storm is expected to turn sharply northward across Florida. While there is still some uncertainty regarding the exact track of Irma that far out, marine interests over the eastern Gulf should prepare for the potential for tropical storm or hurricane force winds by Sat. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... The outer bands of major Hurricane Irma are starting to impact the northern Leeward Islands. Swell related to the system is likely starting to move through Atlc passages, as noted by the buoy in the NE Caribbean showing up to 7 ft with winds still only 10 kt. Current forecast continues to move Irma WNW and across Barbuda, Anguilla and near or just N of Anegada next 24 to 36 hours hours. Tropical Storm force southerly winds will shift W across the NE Caribbean to the N of about 17N... including Atlc passages, through mid week, with strong to near storm force winds elsewhere N of about 16N. Southerly storm force winds expected across Windward passage on Thu night and Fri as Irma moves between Bahamas and Cuba. Marine interests across the E Caribbean SHALL monitor the progress and forecast adjustments of Irma. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... Buoy 41043 near 21N65W is reporting 8 ft seas ahead of the approaching major Hurricane Irma, with 18 ft seas earlier at Buoy 41044 near 21.5N59W. Seas in excess of 12 ft will encompass the entire area outside of the Bahamas south of 29N through late Thu as the center of Irma closes in on the southern Bahamas and Turks/Caicos and into the Old Bahama Channel. See hurricanes.gov for more information on Irma. Meanwhile Tropical Storm Jose has formed in the central tropical Atlantic near 12N39W. Jose is forecast to gain hurricane strength as it follows Irma, but is expected to track farther north of the Leewards then recurve east of the Bahamas through Sun. See hurricanes.gov for more information on Jose. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ023...CARIBBEAN N OF 15N BETWEEN 64W AND 72W... Tropical Storm Warning Wed. .AMZ025...OFFSHORE WATERS LEEWARD ISLANDS... Hurricane Warning today into Wed. Tropical Storm Warning Wed night. .AMZ027...TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W... Hurricane Warning today into tonight. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ119...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N E OF BAHAMAS TO 70W... Tropical Storm Warning Thu. .AMZ121...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... Tropical Storm Warning Wed night into Thu. .AMZ123...ATLANTIC S OF 22N W OF 70W INCLUDING APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE... Tropical Storm Warning Wed night. Hurricane Warning Thu. .AMZ125...ATLANTIC S OF 22N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W INCLUDING PUERTO RICO TRENCH... Hurricane Warning Wed into Thu. .AMZ127...ATLANTIC FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... Tropical Storm Warning today into tonight. Hurricane Warning Wed. Tropical Storm Warning Wed night. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Christensen. National Hurricane Center.