000 AGXX40 KNHC 051026 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 626 AM EDT Tue Sep 5 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A low level NNW-SSE orientated trough continues across the W- Central and SW Gulf waters just offshore of the Mexican coast, with a 03Z ASCAT pass revealing a closed low near 21.5N97W. Close proximity to coast likely causing models to underestimate potential by current stlt imagery show broad deep cnvtn across E semicircle and would appear that this system has a better chance for development than models indicate. Models suggest the low will drift SE next few days then meander after Wed-Thu as early season front sink across NW and N Gulf ahead of the approaching Irma. Fresh to locally strong NE winds expected N of front across the NW Gulf Wed night and Thu. Global models have shifted W with track of Irma and now suggest chance for it to move through Straits then turn sharply N and possibly across far E Gulf or along W coast of Florida. Stay tuned. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... Light to moderate trades prevail across most of the Carib this morning, while leading front of E swells from Irma hitting the Lesser Antilles attm and through the NE Carib passages. Since the 06Z fix the eye of Irma has cleared out and it looks strong and more intense than Dvorak will allow attm. Vortices inside the 25 nm wide eye causing wobble appearance but over recent motion remains W and should begin to turn WNW soon. Models in very good agreement in short term with even UKMET having shifted slightly n in the short term. Current forecast moves Irma WNW and across Barbuda, Anguilla and near or just N of Anegada next 36-48 hours. Strong E to NE swell will increase across the N Atlc waters and NE Carib passages early today with 12 ft seas hitting the N Leewards by noon. Tropical Storm force southerly winds will shift W across the NE Caribbean to the N of about 17N...including Atlc passages, through mid week, with strong to near storm force winds elsewhere N of about 16N. Southerly storm force winds expected across Windward passage on Thu night and Fri as Irma moves between Bahamas and Cuba. Marine interests across the E Caribbean SHALL monitor the progress and forecast adjustments of Irma. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... A NE to SW orientated ridge has begun to builds SW into N florida and will meanders from Bermuda to Port Canaveral on Tue and Wed. Large NE to E swells have arrived across the tropical waters from 19N to 22N E of 60W in association with approaching Irma and estimated at 15-25 ft and building, while 41044 farther to the N just hit 12 ft. Tropical storm force and greater conditions will cross 60W by midday today and shift WNW across the tropical waters S of 22N through Wed, with Irma reaching the Turks and Caicos region by Thu evening. Large SE swell will begin to spread NW across the area waters starting tonight through Wed, reaching 70W by early Wed morning and through all the Bahamas by Thu morning. Models guidance continues to shift W in the long range and is suggesting possibly NW then N turn across the Straits Sat and possibly across the far Ern gulf or W coast of Florida. Marine interests should closely monitor the progress and forecast adjustments of Irma. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ025...OFFSHORE WATERS LEEWARD ISLANDS... Hurricane Warning today into Wed. .AMZ027...TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W... Hurricane Warning early today into tonight. Tropical Storm Warning Wed. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ125...ATLANTIC S OF 22N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W INCLUDING PUERTO RICO TRENCH... Tropical Storm Warning Wed. .AMZ127...ATLANTIC FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... Tropical Storm Warning today into tonight. Hurricane Warning Wed. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Stripling. National Hurricane Center.