000 AGXX40 KNHC 031714 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 114 PM EDT Sun Sep 3 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A deep-layered NNE-SSW trough is shifting slowly E across the eastern Gulf and will advect considerable moisture NE across the waters e of a line from the Fl Big Bend to the Bay of Campeche today. A low level NW-SE orientated trough will extend across the SW Gulf waters this week with the array of guidance all suggesting a surface low will develop intermittently along the trough axis. Expect moderate locally fresh SE flow within 150 nm NE of the trough axis through Mon. An E to W ridge will develop across the northern gulf early this week, and then strengthen during the middle of the week with fresh to locally strong NE winds across the NW Gulf on Wed night, with these conditions spreading S across the W-Central and SW Gulf on Thu. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... Fresh nocturnal trades are expected along the NW coast of Colombia tonight and on Mon night, then the gradient will relax. NE-E swells in the form of 7-8 ft have arrived near 19N55W. These swells will gradually build while propagating W across the tropical waters E of Windwards reaching the E passages late Mon. By then, tropical storm force and greater conditions will have moved into the waters N of 15N E of 56W in association HURCN Irma, which will reach the vicinity of the Virgin islands on Tue night and Wed. Strong southerly winds and large swells expected across the NE Caribbean on Wed night and Thu. Marine interests across the E Caribbean should closely monitor the progress of Irma. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... A low level trough is analyzed across the NW waters accompanied by SCT RW/ISOL TS. A NE to SW ridge extends from Bermuda to the NW Bahamas. The ridge will retract E today allowing the trough to move E and stall from near 31N75W to NE Fl tonight and then wash out on Tue as the ridge rebuilds W to NE Fl where it will meander through mid week. NE-E swells in the form of 7-8 ft have arrived across the tropical waters from 19N to 22N E of 56W in association with HURCN Irma. These swells will gradually build as these propagate W passing 60W on Mon. By then strong to near gale force NE winds will reach along 56W. Tropical storm force and greater conditions will shift W across the tropical waters s of 21N through mid week with Irma reaching near the SE Bahamas Thu night. Marine interests across the E Caribbean and Bahamas should closely monitor the progress of Irma. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ025...OFFSHORE WATERS LEEWARD ISLANDS... Tropical Storm Warning Tue. .AMZ027...TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W... Tropical Storm Warning Mon. Hurricane Warning Mon night into Tue. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ127...ATLANTIC FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... Tropical Storm Warning Tue. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Nelson. National Hurricane Center.