000 AGXX40 KNHC 290751 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 351 AM EDT Tue Aug 29 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Tropical Storm Harvey is again over the Gulf waters. At 29/0600 UTC, it is located near 28.0N 95.0W, moving ESE or 120 degrees at 3 kt. A turn toward the northeast and a continued slow forward speed are expected later today and tonight. Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Tropical storm force winds are within 150 nm E and 60 W semicircles. The most recent scatterometer pass indicates winds of 20-30 kt over the Gulf waters N of 26N W of 90W. Buoy observations are showing seas to 12 ft within about 90 nm S semicircle and 60 nm NE quadrant. The center of Harvey is expected to be just offshore of the middle and upper coasts of Texas through tonight, then move inland over the northwestern Gulf coast on Wednesday. Little change in strength is expected while Harvey moves over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. So, it will remain as a tropical storm. After landfall in about 36 hours, gradual weakening is expected. Fresh to strong winds associated with the circulation of Harvey will affect mainly the Gulf waters N of 25N W of 90W today, and N of 26 W of 87W on Wednesday. Winds and seas will gradually diminish across the NW and N-central Gulf waters late Wed into Thursday. As Harvey moves farther inland, a ridge will re-establish across the Gulf region. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... Scatterometer and surface data provided observations of moderate to fresh winds across the south-central Caribbean and over the Gulf of Honduras while gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. The ridge to the north of the basin has weakened as a low pressure (potential tropical cyclone) moves NNE and just off the SE U.S. coast. Expect pulsing fresh to strong trade winds off the coast of northwest Venezuela and northeast Colombia each night starting tonight. Seas will build to 7-8 ft early in the morning with the strongest winds. Moderate to fresh winds are expected across the Gulf of Honduras at night through the forecast period. Gentle to moderate NE-E winds and seas in the 4-6 ft range will prevail across the Tropical N Atlantic waters through the forecast period. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... A disturbance (potential tropical cyclone) continues to move NNE off the SE U.S. coast. A 1006 mb low pressure is analyzed north of the forecast area near 32.5N 79.5W at 29/0600 UTC. A trough extends from the low center across northern Florida into the NE Gulf of Mexico. Scatterometer and surface data indicates fresh to strong winds over the NW waters ahead of the trough axis while buoy 41010 located near 29N78.5W indicates seas to 7 ft. This system is forecast to move near or over the coast of South Carolina this morning and across the North Carolina Outer Banks later today. As the potential tropical cyclone continues to move away from the area, the ridge will build back across the forecast waters. Fresh to strong S to SW winds are expected this morning across the NW waters with seas to 8 ft near 31N. By late today into Wednesday gentle to moderate S to SW winds will dominate the N waters while E to SE winds are expected S of 27N. The northern portion of a tropical wave, currently located across the Mona Passage, will approach the Turks and Caicos Islands tonight, move across the SE Bahamas Wednesday night, and reach the NW Bahamas Thursday night. Mainly moderate SE winds are expected in the wake of the wave, with seas of 5-6 ft E of the Bahamas. Expect fresh to locally strong winds just N of Hispaniola, including the approaches to the Windward Passage during the evenings hours Wednesday to Friday. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ011...NW GULF INCLUDING STETSON BANK... Tropical Storm Warning early today into tonight. .GMZ013...N CENTRAL GULF INCLUDING FLOWER GARDEN BANKS MARINE SANCTUARY... Tropical Storm Warning early today into Wed. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.