000 AGXX40 KNHC 281902 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 302 PM EDT Mon Aug 28 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Tropical Storm Harvey has drifted to the coastline today and is presently meandering near 28.7N 95.8W. Cumulative motion is SE at 2-3 kt past 12 hrs but core looks to be reorganizing attm. A recent SSMI pass showed W to SW to S 20-30 kt winds across the offshore waters extending out 200 nm SW quad and 150 SE. A 09Z altimeter pass hit the TX coastal waters and showed seas to 11 ft which has not likely changed much. Dry air wrapping around the Wrn semicircle of Harvey is punching into the NW Gulf and forcing the dominant rainband across the Ern semicircle Ewd and luckily moving the heavy rain from Houston area Ewd into SW Louisiana. Meanwhile to the E, elongating low pres frm offshore of Tampa Bay to GA coastal waters is nearly stationary with narrow convergence band connecting these two systems extending NW across the NE Gulf to SE LA and drifting NNE towards the NOLA metro area. Seas are generally 4-5 ft across NE portions attm and 6-11 ft NW quarter. Wave models did not have good handle on this at 12Z analysis. Harvey is forecast to do a cyclonic loop out over the water next 24-36 hrs and then accelerate off the NNE, entering land again near the TX-LA border. Strongest winds and seas will develop and shift across the SE semicircle and move into SE Tx and much of S LA during this time and continue to impede outflow from rivers and bayous. Look for seas across SE TX and SW LA near and offshore waters to build to 8-13 ft tonight through Tue night and shift NE toward coast. Conditions to improve dramatically Wed afternoon through Thu afternoon as Harvey exits the region. Weak ridge to build W into the basin after this time. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... Moderate to fresh trades prevail across most of S and central Carib attm as weak ridging prevail across SW N Atlc into central Bahamas. A pair of tropical wave will move through the basin next 48 hours, with a third invof 51W attm to move across the tropical N Atlc waters next 24 hours and across SE Carib Wed-Thu. Winds and seas to remain somewhat below normal next few days before ridge begins to build W across the SW N Atlc Wed-Thu as low off E coast lifts out and deepens quickly. Fresh to strong trades to then prevail across central Carib through rest of work week. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... The disturbance (potential tropical cyclone) continues to meander along the NE FL-GA-SC coasts today with hi res vis imagery showing a pair of meso lows there. Stationary front extending from just NW of these features NE across Atlc producing strong gradient winds and has kicked up seas to 8-12 ft across this area. Stlt imagery suggests the elongated trof has drifted slightly NW today and towards the coast which is shifting this NE fetch to along the coast, and resultant seas should begin to diminish in the short term. Elsewhere ridging extending into the region underneath the frontal system and this disturbance producing light to moderate anticyclonic flow, and seas 3-5 ft. No sig changes to forecast for the disturbance, and is expected to move NNE and near or along the Georgia and South Carolina coasts this evening and tonight and along the North Carolina coast late tonight and Tuesday. This system currently does not look tropical but the sfc low has the potential to move into active convection to the NE and may briefly become a tropical storm later tonight or Tue, and is forecast to become post- tropical on Wed as it become involved with front. As the low moves away from the area, the ridge will build back across the forecast waters. By late Tuesday into Wednesday gentle to moderate S to SW winds will dominate the N waters while E to SE winds are expected S of 27N. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ011...NW GULF INCLUDING STETSON BANK... Tropical Storm Warning Tue into Tue night. .GMZ013...N CENTRAL GULF INCLUDING FLOWER GARDEN BANKS MARINE SANCTUARY... Tropical Storm Warning Tue into Tue night. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Stripling. National Hurricane Center.