000 AGXX40 KNHC 100802 MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 108 AM EDT Thu Aug 10 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Tropical Cyclone Franklin inland Mexico at sunrise will continue westward and weaken to a remnant low near 19.5N 102W this evening. Winds will diminish to 20 kt or less, and seas will subside to less than 8 ft across SW Gulf by sunset today. A surface ridge will meander westward from the Florida Big Bend across the northern gulf waters through Mon with a surface high developing along the ridge during the late afternoons as a N to S orientated thermal trough develops over interior Florida during peak heating. A thermal trough will develop over the Yucatan Peninsula during the evenings, move slowly westward during the overnight hours, and dissipate over the SW Gulf by late each morning. Expect a fresh to locally strong NE-E-SE wind shift, and 3-5 ft seas, along this trough. However, this evenings trough will be reinforced by the n extension of a tropical wave that will pass W across the Bay of Campeche. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... Fresh to locally strong nocturnal trades are expected along the N coasts of Colombia and Venezuela to include the Gulf of Venezuela, resulting in seas to 9 ft propagating W across the SW Caribbean between 11N and 14N. Strong E trades expected along the southern tip of Hispaniola this morning, and forecast to develop again on Mon. Locally strong trades are forecast across the Gulf of Honduras this evening. A fresh NE-E-SE wind shift and seas to 6 ft will accompany a tropical wave passing through the E Caribbean this morning. The wave will continue through the Central Caribbean on Fri, then slow somewhat as it continues through the W Caribbean during the upcoming weekend. Model guidance suggests that the pressure gradient will tighten on Mon night with fresh to locally strong trades developing across the entire Caribbean to the S of 18N on Tue. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... A series of troughs will pass E to W across the area through Mon. The westernmost trough will move W through the Bahama Channel today accompanied by SCT TS. Another trough will separate from its parent tropical wave that will continue W across the tropical waters S of 22N passing through the Virgin Islands this morning, reaching the Atlc approach to Mona Passage tonight, and pass through the Atlc approach to the Windward Passage on Fri night and Sat. The trough that breaks off to the N will move NW reaching the SE Bahamas on Fri night, and pass through the Central Bahamas this weekend, and pass through The Bahama Channel on Mon night into Tue, all the while accompanied by a moderate to locally fresh NE-E-SE wind shift. Strong trades will develop along the N coast of Hispaniola this evening and again on Sun and Mon evenings. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... Hurricane Warning early today. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... None. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Nelson. National Hurricane Center. AGXX40 KNHC 121045 CCA MIMATS Marine Weather Discussion...CORRECTED NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 545 AM EST Sun Feb 12 2017 Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas ...GULF OF MEXICO...updated MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High Confidence. High pressure prevails over the forecast waters. Latest buoy and platform observations along with Ascat data from last night show mainly gentle to moderate return flow across the waters. In the western portion, return flow is reaching the fresh category at times. Seas are in the 4-5 ft range, except for lower seas of 2-3 ft in the northeast portion and in the eastern Bay of Campeche. The high pressure ridge will shift southward through Monday allowing for a fairly weak cold front to drop southward over the northern waters. Northerly flow will be in the moderate range over those waters through Monday evening before diminishing to mostly a gentle northeast flow. The ridge will then retreat eastward as low pressure with an associated cold front moves across eastern Texas on Tuesday. The cold front will move over the northwest waters Tuesday night into Wednesday. The front will reach from the Florida panhandle to the Bay of Campeche Wednesday evening, and move southeast of the area on Thursday. Fresh to strong northwest to north winds will follow in behind the front, with near gale winds over the far southwest Gulf Wednesday. These winds will quickly diminish on Thursday as high pressure settles in over the area. Seas will subside throughout the basin on Thursday. Areas of dense fog observed last night across portions of the northwest gulf appear to have fractured into patches of dense fog. Latest fog guidance indicates that the fog should dissipate for the most part around or shortly after 15Z this morning. The fog may develop again tonight, and on Monday night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High Confidence. High pressure is centered north of the area. Latest satellite derived winds...buoy and ship observations reveal strong to near gale winds over the south central Caribbean, with the exception of a small area of minimal gale force northeast to east winds near the coast of Colombia. The observations show fresh to strong winds over the north central Caribbean, fresh winds over the eastern Caribbean, and moderate to fresh winds over the western Caribbean as well as over the tropical north Atlantic waters. Seas are in the 8-12 ft range over the south central Caribbean, except for higher seas of 10-14 ft in the area of gale force winds. Seas are 6-8 ft in the north central Caribbean, 4-6 ft in the eastern Caribbean, 5-6 ft in the western Caribbean, and 6-8 ft over the tropical north Atlantic waters south of 15N due to decaying NE to E swell there. A newly arrived set of NW swell has infiltrated the northern portion of the tropical north Atlantic bringing seas of 8-12 ft there, with the highest of the seas presently concentrated in the northwest part of zone AMZ127. This set of NW swell is indicated by wave model guidance to propagate southeastward through the remainder of the tropical north Atlantic into Monday while decaying. Seas will respond by lowering to 7-9 ft early on Monday, to 6-8 ft Monday afternoon, and to 5-7 ft Tuesday. Yet another set of NW swell is expected to impact the northern portion of tropical north Atlantic on Wednesday building seas to the range of 8-11 ft there. This set of swell, like the previous one, will also affect the remainder of the tropical north Atlantic zones on Thursday, but will be losing energy with seas lowering to 7-9 ft at that time. High pressure north of the area will weaken through Tuesday as it slides eastward. This will decrease winds and seas over the Caribbean waters, with winds and seas expected to fall below advisory criteria by late Tuesday. The gale conditions presently occurring near the coast of Colombia are forecast to diminish at or just past 12Z this morning. These winds will pulse back up to gale force one more time in the same geographic location tonight, but within a smaller coverage area. The winds then diminish early Monday morning. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High Confidence. High pressure prevails over the forecast area. A dissipating stationary front prevails over the southeast waters. Latest satellite derived winds along with ship...buoy...and CMAN data depict fresh to strong northeast winds over the southern waters and light to gentle winds over the northern waters. The fresh to strong northeast winds were confirmed by the 0134Z Ascat pass from last night as well. Seas are in the 8-11 ft south of 26N and east of the Bahamas, and 6-9 ft elsewhere to the east and northeast of the Bahamas. Seas elsewhere are in the 4-6 ft range, except for lower seas of 1-3 ft west of the Bahamas. The front will lose its identity today possibly transitioning to a shear line feature. Global models have been consistently suggesting that a series of cold fronts will move across the northern waters during the forecast period attendant by strong winds east and west of them. In addition, the fronts will be followed by sets of long period NW to N swell that will affect the waters east of the Bahamas during the period. The swell could potentially create hazardous marine conditions for vessels navigating those waters. Max seas are expected to peak to around 19 ft in the far northeast portion of the area on Tuesday before subsiding to 10 ft on Wednesday. Seas will peak to around 14 ft in zone AMZ113 on Thursday in the next round of long period NW to N swell. $$ .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by telephone: .GULF OF MEXICO... None. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... Gale Warning through 12Z this morning. Gale Warning tonight. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... None. $$ *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php For additional information, please visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine $$ .Forecaster Aguirre. National Hurricane Center.